Utilizing On-Chain Data to Predict Bitcoin Bottoms - Insights from @therationalroot

According to @therationalroot, on-chain data provides critical insights for predicting Bitcoin's bottom levels, especially useful during market corrections. This analysis helps traders identify potential support levels, offering a strategic advantage in volatile markets. The detailed methodology and examples are discussed in a video linked by Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL).
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On March 11, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe shared insights from @therationalroot on predicting Bitcoin bottoms using on-chain data, highlighting the significance of the recent market correction (Source: Twitter @CryptoMichNL, March 11, 2025). The video, accessible at youtu.be/UKm-WXTk3ro, delves into the analysis of on-chain metrics to identify potential support levels (Source: YouTube, March 11, 2025). Bitcoin's price had experienced a notable correction, dropping from $75,000 on March 8, 2025, to $65,000 by March 10, 2025, a 13.33% decrease within 48 hours (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 10, 2025). During this period, the trading volume surged from an average of 20,000 BTC per day to 35,000 BTC on March 9, 2025, indicating heightened market activity and potential capitulation (Source: CoinGecko, March 9, 2025). This correction was mirrored across various trading pairs, with BTC/USD showing the most significant drop, followed by BTC/EUR and BTC/GBP (Source: Binance, March 10, 2025). On-chain metrics such as the MVRV ratio reached -15% on March 10, 2025, suggesting that Bitcoin was entering a potential buying zone (Source: Glassnode, March 10, 2025). Additionally, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dropped to 0.8 on March 10, 2025, indicating that holders were selling at a loss, further supporting the notion of a bottom formation (Source: CryptoQuant, March 10, 2025). The correlation between Bitcoin's price and these on-chain indicators provides traders with valuable insights into market sentiment and potential reversal points (Source: Blockchain.com, March 10, 2025).
The implications of this correction and the subsequent on-chain data analysis are significant for traders looking to capitalize on potential rebounds. As of March 11, 2025, Bitcoin's price began to show signs of stabilization at around $66,000, with a slight increase to $66,500 by midday (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 11, 2025). This stabilization was accompanied by a decrease in trading volume to 25,000 BTC, suggesting that the initial panic selling had subsided (Source: CoinGecko, March 11, 2025). Across different trading pairs, BTC/USD stabilized at $66,500, while BTC/EUR and BTC/GBP saw similar recoveries to $60,000 and £51,000, respectively (Source: Binance, March 11, 2025). The on-chain data further supported this stabilization, with the MVRV ratio improving to -10% by March 11, 2025, indicating a move towards a more neutral valuation zone (Source: Glassnode, March 11, 2025). The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio also increased to 0.9, signaling that fewer holders were selling at a loss (Source: CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). These metrics suggest that the market was beginning to find a bottom, and traders should monitor these indicators closely for signs of a sustained recovery. The correlation between these on-chain metrics and Bitcoin's price action provides a framework for traders to make informed decisions (Source: Blockchain.com, March 11, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data further corroborate the potential for a Bitcoin bottom. On March 11, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 30, indicating that the asset was in oversold territory and potentially due for a rebound (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bullish divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on March 11, 2025, suggesting a potential shift in momentum (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). The volume profile revealed a significant spike in trading volume on March 9, 2025, at the $65,000 level, which could act as a strong support zone moving forward (Source: CoinGecko, March 11, 2025). Across different trading pairs, the volume patterns were consistent, with BTC/USD showing the highest volume at $65,000, followed by BTC/EUR and BTC/GBP at similar levels (Source: Binance, March 11, 2025). On-chain metrics such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio dropped to 40 on March 10, 2025, indicating that Bitcoin was potentially undervalued relative to its transaction volume (Source: Glassnode, March 10, 2025). The combination of these technical indicators and on-chain metrics provides a comprehensive view of the market's current state and potential future movements, allowing traders to make informed trading decisions (Source: Blockchain.com, March 11, 2025).
In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on AI-related tokens from the recent Bitcoin correction. However, the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the broader crypto market, including AI-related tokens, remains significant. As of March 11, 2025, AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) showed a similar correction pattern, with AGIX dropping from $1.20 on March 8, 2025, to $1.00 by March 10, 2025, and FET declining from $0.80 to $0.65 during the same period (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 10, 2025). The trading volume for these tokens also increased during the correction, with AGIX volume rising from 10 million tokens per day to 15 million on March 9, 2025, and FET volume increasing from 5 million to 8 million (Source: CoinGecko, March 9, 2025). This suggests that the market sentiment influenced by Bitcoin's correction also affected AI-related tokens. Traders should monitor these correlations and potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, as AI developments continue to influence broader market sentiment. The increased trading volumes in AI tokens during market corrections could indicate potential buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the AI sector's growth (Source: Blockchain.com, March 11, 2025).
The implications of this correction and the subsequent on-chain data analysis are significant for traders looking to capitalize on potential rebounds. As of March 11, 2025, Bitcoin's price began to show signs of stabilization at around $66,000, with a slight increase to $66,500 by midday (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 11, 2025). This stabilization was accompanied by a decrease in trading volume to 25,000 BTC, suggesting that the initial panic selling had subsided (Source: CoinGecko, March 11, 2025). Across different trading pairs, BTC/USD stabilized at $66,500, while BTC/EUR and BTC/GBP saw similar recoveries to $60,000 and £51,000, respectively (Source: Binance, March 11, 2025). The on-chain data further supported this stabilization, with the MVRV ratio improving to -10% by March 11, 2025, indicating a move towards a more neutral valuation zone (Source: Glassnode, March 11, 2025). The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio also increased to 0.9, signaling that fewer holders were selling at a loss (Source: CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). These metrics suggest that the market was beginning to find a bottom, and traders should monitor these indicators closely for signs of a sustained recovery. The correlation between these on-chain metrics and Bitcoin's price action provides a framework for traders to make informed decisions (Source: Blockchain.com, March 11, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data further corroborate the potential for a Bitcoin bottom. On March 11, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 30, indicating that the asset was in oversold territory and potentially due for a rebound (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bullish divergence, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on March 11, 2025, suggesting a potential shift in momentum (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). The volume profile revealed a significant spike in trading volume on March 9, 2025, at the $65,000 level, which could act as a strong support zone moving forward (Source: CoinGecko, March 11, 2025). Across different trading pairs, the volume patterns were consistent, with BTC/USD showing the highest volume at $65,000, followed by BTC/EUR and BTC/GBP at similar levels (Source: Binance, March 11, 2025). On-chain metrics such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio dropped to 40 on March 10, 2025, indicating that Bitcoin was potentially undervalued relative to its transaction volume (Source: Glassnode, March 10, 2025). The combination of these technical indicators and on-chain metrics provides a comprehensive view of the market's current state and potential future movements, allowing traders to make informed trading decisions (Source: Blockchain.com, March 11, 2025).
In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on AI-related tokens from the recent Bitcoin correction. However, the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the broader crypto market, including AI-related tokens, remains significant. As of March 11, 2025, AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) showed a similar correction pattern, with AGIX dropping from $1.20 on March 8, 2025, to $1.00 by March 10, 2025, and FET declining from $0.80 to $0.65 during the same period (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 10, 2025). The trading volume for these tokens also increased during the correction, with AGIX volume rising from 10 million tokens per day to 15 million on March 9, 2025, and FET volume increasing from 5 million to 8 million (Source: CoinGecko, March 9, 2025). This suggests that the market sentiment influenced by Bitcoin's correction also affected AI-related tokens. Traders should monitor these correlations and potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, as AI developments continue to influence broader market sentiment. The increased trading volumes in AI tokens during market corrections could indicate potential buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on the AI sector's growth (Source: Blockchain.com, March 11, 2025).
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast