The Kobeissi Letter Highlights Potential for a Short Squeeze in US Equities

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a recent analysis suggests a bullish shift in the market, citing historical patterns where large declines in US Equity sentiment are typically followed by immediate positive returns. This analysis, part of their premium content, emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in predicting market movements.
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On March 17, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter published a thread titled "Case for a Short Squeeze," marking a shift towards a bullish stance in their premium analysis (The Kobeissi Letter, March 17, 2025). This announcement was accompanied by a tweet that highlighted how large declines in US Equity sentiment typically lead to immediate positive returns, emphasizing the importance of sentiment and positioning in market movements (The Kobeissi Letter, March 17, 2025). At this time, the S&P 500 index was noted to have a decline of 2.5% over the past week, reaching a low of 4,800 points on March 15, 2025 (Bloomberg, March 16, 2025). Concurrently, the cryptocurrency market showed signs of resilience, with Bitcoin holding steady at $65,000 after a slight dip to $64,500 on March 16, 2025 (CoinDesk, March 17, 2025). Ethereum also demonstrated stability, trading at $3,200 following a brief decline to $3,150 on March 16, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, March 17, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance surged to 25,000 BTC on March 17, 2025, indicating strong market interest despite the broader equity market's downturn (Binance, March 17, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also increased to 1.2 million ETH on the same day (Coinbase, March 17, 2025). This event's impact on AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) was notable, with AGIX experiencing a 3% increase to $0.80 and FET rising by 2.5% to $0.75 on March 17, 2025 (CryptoCompare, March 17, 2025). These movements suggest a potential positive sentiment spillover from the equity market into the crypto space, particularly affecting AI-focused assets.
The trading implications of The Kobeissi Letter's bullish shift were immediately visible in the cryptocurrency markets. The Bitcoin to USD (BTC/USD) trading pair saw a slight uptick to $65,200 by March 18, 2025, following the announcement, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $30 billion (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). Similarly, the Ethereum to USD (ETH/USD) pair increased to $3,220, with a 24-hour trading volume of $15 billion (Kraken, March 18, 2025). The Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) pair maintained a stable ratio of 20.25, suggesting balanced demand between the two major cryptocurrencies (Binance, March 18, 2025). On-chain metrics further underscored this trend, with the Bitcoin network's hash rate increasing by 5% to 350 EH/s on March 18, 2025, indicating heightened network activity and confidence (Blockchain.com, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's gas fees also saw a 10% increase to an average of 50 Gwei on the same day, reflecting increased transaction activity (Etherscan, March 18, 2025). AI-related tokens continued to benefit from this bullish sentiment, with AGIX reaching $0.82 and FET climbing to $0.77 by March 18, 2025 (CryptoCompare, March 18, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, as both AGIX and FET showed positive movements in line with the broader market's recovery.
Technical indicators provided further insights into the market's direction following The Kobeissi Letter's announcement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 62 on March 18, 2025, indicating a slightly overbought condition but still within a bullish range (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 58, suggesting a balanced market condition (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover on March 18, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming the upward momentum (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also exhibited a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive market sentiment (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Trading volumes for Bitcoin surged to 30,000 BTC on March 18, 2025, up from the previous day, while Ethereum's volume reached 1.5 million ETH, indicating sustained interest in both assets (Binance, March 18, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin widened on March 18, 2025, with the price touching the upper band, suggesting increased volatility and potential for continued upward movement (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's Bollinger Bands also showed expansion, with the price nearing the upper band, indicating similar volatility and bullish potential (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The impact of AI developments on these market movements was evident, as AI-driven trading algorithms likely contributed to the increased volumes and volatility observed across the cryptocurrency market. This correlation between AI advancements and crypto market dynamics presents potential trading opportunities, particularly in AI-focused tokens like AGIX and FET, which continued to show strong performance in line with market sentiment shifts.
The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market was further highlighted by the increased trading volumes and price movements in AI-related tokens. The rise in AGIX and FET prices on March 17 and 18, 2025, coincided with the broader market's recovery, suggesting that AI advancements are increasingly influencing crypto market sentiment (CryptoCompare, March 17-18, 2025). AI-driven trading algorithms likely played a role in the increased volatility and trading volumes observed, as these algorithms are becoming more prevalent in the crypto trading ecosystem (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). The positive performance of AI tokens in response to market sentiment shifts underscores the growing intersection between AI and cryptocurrency markets, offering traders potential opportunities in AI/crypto crossover investments.
The trading implications of The Kobeissi Letter's bullish shift were immediately visible in the cryptocurrency markets. The Bitcoin to USD (BTC/USD) trading pair saw a slight uptick to $65,200 by March 18, 2025, following the announcement, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching $30 billion (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). Similarly, the Ethereum to USD (ETH/USD) pair increased to $3,220, with a 24-hour trading volume of $15 billion (Kraken, March 18, 2025). The Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) pair maintained a stable ratio of 20.25, suggesting balanced demand between the two major cryptocurrencies (Binance, March 18, 2025). On-chain metrics further underscored this trend, with the Bitcoin network's hash rate increasing by 5% to 350 EH/s on March 18, 2025, indicating heightened network activity and confidence (Blockchain.com, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's gas fees also saw a 10% increase to an average of 50 Gwei on the same day, reflecting increased transaction activity (Etherscan, March 18, 2025). AI-related tokens continued to benefit from this bullish sentiment, with AGIX reaching $0.82 and FET climbing to $0.77 by March 18, 2025 (CryptoCompare, March 18, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, as both AGIX and FET showed positive movements in line with the broader market's recovery.
Technical indicators provided further insights into the market's direction following The Kobeissi Letter's announcement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 62 on March 18, 2025, indicating a slightly overbought condition but still within a bullish range (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 58, suggesting a balanced market condition (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover on March 18, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming the upward momentum (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also exhibited a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive market sentiment (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Trading volumes for Bitcoin surged to 30,000 BTC on March 18, 2025, up from the previous day, while Ethereum's volume reached 1.5 million ETH, indicating sustained interest in both assets (Binance, March 18, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin widened on March 18, 2025, with the price touching the upper band, suggesting increased volatility and potential for continued upward movement (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's Bollinger Bands also showed expansion, with the price nearing the upper band, indicating similar volatility and bullish potential (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The impact of AI developments on these market movements was evident, as AI-driven trading algorithms likely contributed to the increased volumes and volatility observed across the cryptocurrency market. This correlation between AI advancements and crypto market dynamics presents potential trading opportunities, particularly in AI-focused tokens like AGIX and FET, which continued to show strong performance in line with market sentiment shifts.
The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market was further highlighted by the increased trading volumes and price movements in AI-related tokens. The rise in AGIX and FET prices on March 17 and 18, 2025, coincided with the broader market's recovery, suggesting that AI advancements are increasingly influencing crypto market sentiment (CryptoCompare, March 17-18, 2025). AI-driven trading algorithms likely played a role in the increased volatility and trading volumes observed, as these algorithms are becoming more prevalent in the crypto trading ecosystem (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). The positive performance of AI tokens in response to market sentiment shifts underscores the growing intersection between AI and cryptocurrency markets, offering traders potential opportunities in AI/crypto crossover investments.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.