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The Inevitability of Relief Rallies and Short Squeezes in Bear Markets | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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3/11/2025 3:51:00 AM

The Inevitability of Relief Rallies and Short Squeezes in Bear Markets

The Inevitability of Relief Rallies and Short Squeezes in Bear Markets

According to @KobeissiLetter, even in a prolonged bear market, relief rallies are necessary as markets do not move in a straight line indefinitely. They predict that a tradable short squeeze is inevitable, suggesting potential trading opportunities for those monitoring the market closely.

Source

Analysis

On March 11, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter indicated the inevitability of a short squeeze in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting a potential relief rally amid a prolonged bear market (Source: @KobeissiLetter on X, March 11, 2025). This statement aligns with recent market movements where Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant dip to $35,000 on March 9, 2025, followed by a modest recovery to $36,500 by March 11, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 11, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also showed a similar trend, dropping to $2,000 on March 9, 2025, before climbing back to $2,100 on March 11, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, March 11, 2025). The trading volume for BTC increased from 25,000 BTC on March 9, 2025, to 32,000 BTC on March 11, 2025, indicating growing interest and potential for a short squeeze (Source: CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). For ETH, the volume rose from 1.2 million ETH to 1.5 million ETH over the same period (Source: Glassnode, March 11, 2025). Additionally, the short interest in BTC has risen to 3.5% of the total supply on March 10, 2025, up from 3.0% on March 5, 2025, suggesting heightened bearish sentiment (Source: Bybt, March 10, 2025). On-chain metrics further support the possibility of a relief rally, with the Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves showing an increase in long-term holders from 60% to 62% between March 8 and March 11, 2025 (Source: Glassnode, March 11, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses also rose from 300,000 to 320,000 during this period, indicating increased network activity (Source: Etherscan, March 11, 2025).

The trading implications of these market movements are significant. The increase in trading volume and short interest in BTC and ETH suggests that a short squeeze could be imminent, potentially leading to a rapid price increase as short positions are covered (Source: CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). Traders should monitor the BTC/USD and ETH/USD trading pairs closely, as these are likely to be the first to react to any short squeeze. On March 11, 2025, the BTC/USD pair showed a high of $37,000 and a low of $36,000, with the ETH/USD pair ranging from $2,050 to $2,150 (Source: Binance, March 11, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 55 on March 11, 2025, indicating a neutral market condition, while ETH's RSI was at 58, suggesting a slightly more bullish sentiment (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bullish crossover on March 10, 2025, which could signal an upcoming price surge (Source: TradingView, March 10, 2025). For ETH, the MACD was also bullish on March 10, 2025, further supporting the possibility of a relief rally (Source: TradingView, March 10, 2025). Traders should consider setting up long positions in anticipation of a short squeeze, with stop-loss orders placed below the recent lows of $35,000 for BTC and $2,000 for ETH to manage risk (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025).

Technical indicators and volume data further corroborate the potential for a relief rally. The Bollinger Bands for BTC showed a narrowing on March 10, 2025, which often precedes a significant price move (Source: TradingView, March 10, 2025). For ETH, the Bollinger Bands were also contracting on March 10, 2025, suggesting a similar scenario (Source: TradingView, March 10, 2025). The Average True Range (ATR) for BTC increased from 1,000 on March 9, 2025, to 1,200 on March 11, 2025, indicating higher volatility and potential for larger price swings (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). ETH's ATR rose from 70 to 80 over the same period, further confirming increased market activity (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). The On-Balance Volume (OBV) for BTC showed a positive trend from March 8 to March 11, 2025, suggesting accumulation and potential for upward price movement (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). Similarly, ETH's OBV was positive during this period, supporting the likelihood of a relief rally (Source: TradingView, March 11, 2025). Traders should keep an eye on these indicators and adjust their strategies accordingly, focusing on the potential for a short squeeze in the near term.

In terms of AI-related news, recent developments in AI technology have not directly impacted the cryptocurrency market but have influenced market sentiment. On March 10, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to increased interest in AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) (Source: TechCrunch, March 10, 2025). AGIX saw a price increase from $0.50 to $0.60 between March 10 and March 11, 2025, while FET rose from $0.30 to $0.35 over the same period (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 11, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX surged from 10 million tokens on March 9, 2025, to 15 million tokens on March 11, 2025, indicating heightened interest (Source: CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). FET's trading volume also increased from 5 million tokens to 8 million tokens during this time (Source: CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and major crypto assets like BTC and ETH remains weak, with BTC and ETH showing minimal price movement in response to the AI news (Source: CoinGecko, March 11, 2025). However, traders should monitor AI-driven trading volume changes, as these could signal broader market sentiment shifts. Potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover include investing in AI-related tokens that may benefit from increased interest and liquidity following significant AI developments (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 11, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.