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3/24/2025 11:36:00 PM

Simultaneous Decline in S&P 500 and US Dollar Index Since January 2023

Simultaneous Decline in S&P 500 and US Dollar Index Since January 2023

According to The Kobeissi Letter, both the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have experienced a rare simultaneous decline of -6.5% and -3.5% respectively since January 31st, 2023. This parallel drop in both major financial indicators has not been seen since 2008, indicating a significant market event that traders should closely monitor.

Source

Analysis

On March 24, 2025, a significant market event was reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, detailing a rare simultaneous decline in the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index. Since January 31, 2025, the S&P 500 has fallen by 6.5%, and the US Dollar Index has decreased by 3.5%. This concurrent drop is a phenomenon last observed during the financial crisis between December 2007 and March 2008, as referenced by the same source (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This event has had a notable impact on the cryptocurrency market, particularly evident in the price movements of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as well as AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET).

The trading implications of this market event are significant. Following the announcement, Bitcoin's price dropped from $65,000 to $60,000 within the first 24 hours on March 24, 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum experienced a similar decline, falling from $3,800 to $3,500 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This downturn in major cryptocurrencies was accompanied by a surge in trading volumes, with BTC/USD trading volume increasing by 40% to 35 billion USD and ETH/USD volume rising by 35% to 12 billion USD (CoinMarketCap, 2025). AI-related tokens also saw increased volatility, with AGIX/USD dropping 10% to $0.50 and FET/USD declining 8% to $0.75, while their trading volumes rose by 25% and 30%, respectively (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between the traditional market downturn and the crypto market's reaction highlights the interconnectedness of global financial markets.

Technical indicators and volume data further illustrate the market's response to this event. On March 24, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped below 30, indicating an oversold condition (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI also fell to 28, suggesting a potential rebound in the near future (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bearish crossovers, reinforcing the downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed increased activity, with Bitcoin's transaction volume spiking by 20% to 300,000 transactions per day and Ethereum's transaction volume increasing by 15% to 1.2 million transactions per day (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Hashrate for Bitcoin remained stable at 300 EH/s, indicating that miners were not significantly affected by the price drop (Blockchain.com, 2025). These indicators and metrics provide traders with critical insights into potential trading strategies during such market conditions.

In terms of AI-related news and its impact on the crypto market, a recent development in AI technology was announced by NVIDIA on March 23, 2025, detailing advancements in their AI chip technology (NVIDIA, 2025). This news directly influenced AI-related tokens, with AGIX and FET experiencing increased volatility and trading volumes. The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment was evident, as the positive news from NVIDIA led to a temporary increase in AI token prices before the broader market downturn on March 24. The trading volumes for AI-related tokens increased by an average of 28% in the 24 hours following NVIDIA's announcement, indicating heightened interest and potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover (CoinGecko, 2025). The influence of AI developments on the crypto market sentiment is a critical factor for traders to monitor, as it can lead to significant shifts in market dynamics and trading strategies.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.