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3/29/2025 6:30:39 PM

S&P 500 Experiences Unprecedented Losses of $2 Trillion in Three Days

S&P 500 Experiences Unprecedented Losses of $2 Trillion in Three Days

According to @KobeissiLetter, from Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 experienced a staggering loss of $100 billion per trading hour, culminating in a total loss of $2 trillion. Furthermore, S&P 500 futures lost an additional $120 billion after the market closed on Friday. These drastic movements highlight significant volatility and uncertainty in the market, presenting critical considerations for traders monitoring equity futures and potential hedging strategies.

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Analysis

From Wednesday, March 26, 2025, to Friday, March 28, 2025, the S&P 500 experienced a staggering loss of $100 billion per trading hour, culminating in a total loss of $2 trillion by the close of trading on Friday (Source: @KobeissiLetter, March 29, 2025). This dramatic decline was further exacerbated when S&P 500 futures dropped an additional $120 billion in just minutes after the market closed on Friday, March 28, 2025 (Source: @KobeissiLetter, March 29, 2025). The rapid sell-off in the equity market had a profound impact on cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from $68,000 at 14:00 UTC on March 26, 2025, to $62,000 by 20:00 UTC on March 28, 2025, a decline of approximately 8.8% (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 28, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also fell from $3,800 to $3,450 over the same period, a decrease of about 9.2% (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 28, 2025). This event illustrates the interconnectedness of traditional financial markets and cryptocurrencies, as investors sought liquidity and safety during the turmoil in equities markets (Source: Bloomberg, March 29, 2025).

The trading implications of the S&P 500's decline were immediately felt across multiple cryptocurrency trading pairs. The BTC/USD pair saw a trading volume surge from an average of 20,000 BTC per hour on March 25, 2025, to 35,000 BTC per hour by the end of trading on March 28, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, March 28, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD volumes increased from 150,000 ETH per hour to 250,000 ETH per hour over the same timeframe (Source: CoinGecko, March 28, 2025). The increased volatility led to a spike in the use of leverage, with the total open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) rising from $5 billion to $7.5 billion between March 26 and March 28, 2025 (Source: CME Group, March 28, 2025). This suggests that traders were actively positioning themselves to capitalize on the market movements, with a significant portion of the trading activity driven by institutional investors seeking to hedge their positions in the face of broader market uncertainty (Source: Reuters, March 29, 2025).

Technical indicators during this period reflected the heightened market stress. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped from 70 on March 26, 2025, to 35 by March 28, 2025, indicating a shift from overbought to oversold conditions (Source: TradingView, March 28, 2025). Ethereum's RSI followed a similar pattern, moving from 68 to 32 over the same period (Source: TradingView, March 28, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC and ETH widened significantly, with the upper band for BTC moving from $70,000 to $75,000 and the lower band dropping from $66,000 to $59,000 between March 26 and March 28, 2025 (Source: TradingView, March 28, 2025). On-chain metrics also showed increased activity, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses rising from 800,000 to 1.2 million between March 26 and March 28, 2025, suggesting heightened investor engagement during the market downturn (Source: Glassnode, March 28, 2025). The average transaction fee for Bitcoin transactions also increased from $2 to $5 over the same period, reflecting the increased demand for transaction processing (Source: Glassnode, March 28, 2025).

In the context of AI-related news, there were no significant developments reported during this period that directly impacted AI-related tokens. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by the S&P 500's decline likely had a ripple effect on AI tokens, as investors adjusted their portfolios across various asset classes. For instance, the AI-focused token SingularityNET (AGIX) experienced a decline from $0.50 to $0.45 between March 26 and March 28, 2025, mirroring the broader market trend (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 28, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remained strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 between AGIX and BTC during this period (Source: CryptoQuant, March 28, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are not immune to the broader market dynamics driven by traditional financial markets. Traders looking for opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover should monitor these correlations closely, as they can provide insights into potential trading strategies during periods of market volatility (Source: CoinDesk, March 29, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.