Prediction Markets Shift Bitcoin's 2025 Bottom Forecast to $62,000
According to @KobeissiLetter, recent data from prediction markets indicate that the expected bottom for Bitcoin in 2025 has been adjusted to $62,000. This forecast has decreased by approximately $18,000 since February 23rd, as reported by @Kalshi. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2026 has diminished, impacting traders' long-term positioning strategies.
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On February 28, 2025, Bitcoin's forecast for its 2025 bottom was reported at $62,000, a significant decline from the $80,000 predicted on February 23, 2025, according to data from prediction market platform Kalshi (Kalshi, 2025). This represents a drop of approximately $18,000 in just five days, highlighting a notable shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2026 has decreased, as noted by the Kobeissi Letter on the same date (Kobeissi Letter, 2025). This adjustment in forecasts reflects broader market concerns and could influence trading strategies across various crypto assets.
The trading implications of this forecast revision are significant. As of February 28, 2025, Bitcoin's price was recorded at $65,120, showing a slight discrepancy with the predicted bottom but still within the bearish trend suggested by the forecast (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours ending on February 28, 2025, stood at approximately $35.7 billion, indicating increased market activity and potential volatility (CoinMarketCap, 2025). For other trading pairs, Ethereum (ETH) against USD saw a volume of $15.2 billion on the same date, while Bitcoin against Tether (BTC/USDT) recorded $20.1 billion in trading volume (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a rise in active addresses to 1.2 million on February 28, 2025, suggesting heightened interest and potential market movement (Glassnode, 2025).
Technical indicators on February 28, 2025, reveal that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 45, indicating a neutral market condition, neither overbought nor oversold (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was showing a bearish crossover, suggesting potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on various exchanges, such as Binance, showed a significant increase to 1.1 million BTC traded over the last 24 hours ending on February 28, 2025, indicating strong market participation (Binance, 2025). The 50-day and 200-day moving averages for Bitcoin were at $68,000 and $72,000, respectively, as of the same date, both above the current price, further supporting the bearish outlook (TradingView, 2025).
The trading implications of this forecast revision are significant. As of February 28, 2025, Bitcoin's price was recorded at $65,120, showing a slight discrepancy with the predicted bottom but still within the bearish trend suggested by the forecast (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin over the last 24 hours ending on February 28, 2025, stood at approximately $35.7 billion, indicating increased market activity and potential volatility (CoinMarketCap, 2025). For other trading pairs, Ethereum (ETH) against USD saw a volume of $15.2 billion on the same date, while Bitcoin against Tether (BTC/USDT) recorded $20.1 billion in trading volume (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a rise in active addresses to 1.2 million on February 28, 2025, suggesting heightened interest and potential market movement (Glassnode, 2025).
Technical indicators on February 28, 2025, reveal that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 45, indicating a neutral market condition, neither overbought nor oversold (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was showing a bearish crossover, suggesting potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on various exchanges, such as Binance, showed a significant increase to 1.1 million BTC traded over the last 24 hours ending on February 28, 2025, indicating strong market participation (Binance, 2025). The 50-day and 200-day moving averages for Bitcoin were at $68,000 and $72,000, respectively, as of the same date, both above the current price, further supporting the bearish outlook (TradingView, 2025).
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