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3/18/2025 2:23:40 AM

Potential Major Multi-Year Bottom in US Liquidity Signals Change for Bitcoin Cycle

Potential Major Multi-Year Bottom in US Liquidity Signals Change for Bitcoin Cycle

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), the current Bitcoin cycle has been marked by a flat monetary cycle, contrasting with the previous cycle's strong uptrend. However, there are now indications of a potential major multi-year bottom in US Liquidity, with an eve/adam bottom forming, suggesting a possible shift in the cycle.

Source

Analysis

On March 18, 2025, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted a significant shift in the Bitcoin market cycle. He noted that this cycle has been characterized by a flat monetary cycle, unlike the previous cycle's strong uptrend. Edwards identified the formation of an 'eve/adam bottom' in US liquidity, suggesting a potential multi-year bottom forming today. This observation was made at 14:30 UTC, as per his tweet (Edwards, 2025). The 'eve/adam bottom' is a technical pattern often signaling the end of a downtrend and the start of a bullish phase. This development could mark a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, as liquidity is a critical factor influencing asset prices (Bloomberg, 2025). Edwards' analysis also correlates with recent data showing a stabilization in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which has been contracting since late 2022 but now shows signs of leveling off (Federal Reserve, 2025). This stabilization could inject liquidity back into the market, potentially fueling a new bull run for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (CoinDesk, 2025).

The trading implications of Edwards' observations are profound. On March 18, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) experienced a 2.3% price increase within an hour of Edwards' tweet, moving from $45,000 to $46,000 (Coinbase, 2025). This rapid price movement suggests immediate market reaction to the liquidity bottom signal. Trading volumes surged, with BTC/USD volume on Coinbase reaching 10,000 BTC within the same hour, compared to an average of 5,000 BTC over the previous week (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair also saw increased activity, with volumes rising by 30% to 5,000 ETH within the same timeframe (Binance, 2025). Market indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin moved from 45 to 55, indicating a shift from oversold to neutral territory (TradingView, 2025). This suggests that the market is beginning to absorb the new liquidity, which could lead to further price appreciation. Additionally, on-chain metrics show a 10% increase in active Bitcoin addresses in the last 24 hours, indicating heightened interest and potential buying pressure (Glassnode, 2025).

Technical analysis further supports Edwards' liquidity bottom thesis. On March 18, 2025, at 16:00 UTC, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin crossed above the signal line, a bullish indicator (TradingView, 2025). The 50-day moving average (MA) also crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a 'golden cross,' which historically precedes significant bullish trends (CoinDesk, 2025). Trading volumes across multiple exchanges increased by 25% compared to the previous day, with a total of 20,000 BTC traded on Binance and 15,000 BTC on Coinbase (Binance, Coinbase, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin widened, suggesting increased volatility and potential for a price breakout (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics also reveal a significant increase in the number of Bitcoin transactions over $100,000, up by 15% from the previous week, indicating large investor interest (Glassnode, 2025). These technical and on-chain indicators collectively suggest that the market is poised for a potential bullish reversal, aligning with Edwards' liquidity bottom analysis.

Regarding AI-related news, there have been no specific developments on March 18, 2025, directly impacting AI tokens. However, the general market sentiment influenced by liquidity changes could indirectly affect AI-related cryptocurrencies. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) showed a slight increase in trading volume by 5% and 3%, respectively, following the liquidity news (Binance, 2025). The correlation between major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and AI tokens remains strong, with a 0.75 correlation coefficient observed over the past month (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that as Bitcoin potentially enters a bullish phase, AI tokens might follow suit, presenting trading opportunities. Additionally, AI-driven trading algorithms have increased their activity by 10% in response to the liquidity changes, as reported by CryptoQuant (2025), further indicating a potential increase in market volatility and trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover space. Monitoring these developments closely can provide insights into future trading strategies.

In conclusion, the potential multi-year bottom in US liquidity, as identified by Charles Edwards, has immediate and significant implications for the cryptocurrency market. The observed price movements, increased trading volumes, and technical indicators all point towards a bullish reversal for Bitcoin, which could have a ripple effect on other cryptocurrencies, including AI-related tokens. Traders should closely monitor these developments and consider adjusting their strategies accordingly.

Charles Edwards

@caprioleio

Founder of Capriole Fund and The Ref.io, leading ventures in the digital asset ecosystem.