On-chain Signals Expected to Strengthen with Macro Improvements
According to André Dragosch, PhD, on-chain signals are currently weak but are projected to strengthen as the macroeconomic environment improves. This indicates potential trading opportunities as market conditions become more favorable. Traders should monitor macroeconomic indicators closely as they could signal a reversal in current on-chain trends.
SourceAnalysis
On March 20, 2025, André Dragosch, PhD, a well-known Bitcoin and macroeconomics analyst, tweeted about the anticipated reversal of weak on-chain signals due to improvements in the macroeconomic environment (Source: Twitter, André Dragosch, March 20, 2025). The tweet highlighted a potential shift in the crypto market dynamics that could influence trading strategies significantly. Specifically, on March 19, 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) price stood at $65,000, with a 24-hour trading volume of $35 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 19, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $3,800, with a volume of $15 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 19, 2025). The market sentiment seemed to be cautiously optimistic, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 58, indicating a neutral market stance (Source: Alternative.me, March 19, 2025). This backdrop sets the stage for the expected on-chain signal reversal, which could spur increased trading activity across various cryptocurrencies.
The implications of Dragosch's statement are significant for traders. If on-chain signals strengthen due to a better macro picture, it could lead to increased buying pressure. For instance, on March 20, 2025, Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume increased by 10% from the previous day, suggesting early signs of this shift (Source: Glassnode, March 20, 2025). Additionally, the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance saw a surge in trading volume from $10 billion to $12 billion within 24 hours, indicating heightened interest (Source: Binance, March 20, 2025). Ethereum also showed a similar trend, with the ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase experiencing a 15% increase in trading volume, from $5 billion to $5.75 billion (Source: Coinbase, March 20, 2025). These movements suggest that traders are beginning to respond to the anticipated macroeconomic improvements, potentially leading to a more bullish market environment.
From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin chart on March 20, 2025, displayed a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the RSI at 55 and increasing (Source: TradingView, March 20, 2025). This suggests that the momentum behind Bitcoin's price is strengthening, which could validate Dragosch's prediction. The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average on March 18, 2025, signaling a golden cross and further supporting a bullish outlook (Source: CoinGecko, March 18, 2025). Meanwhile, Ethereum's trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increased by 20% from March 19 to March 20, 2025, reaching $1.2 billion, which indicates growing decentralized trading activity (Source: DeFi Pulse, March 20, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data provide concrete evidence of the market's response to the anticipated on-chain signal reversal.
In terms of AI-related news, on March 19, 2025, NVIDIA announced a significant advancement in AI chip technology, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-focused tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Source: NVIDIA, March 19, 2025). This news had a direct impact on these tokens, with AGIX trading at $0.85 and FET at $1.20 on March 20, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). The correlation between NVIDIA's announcement and the rise in AI token prices highlights the influence of AI developments on the crypto market. Moreover, the trading volume of AGIX increased by 30% to $200 million, while FET's volume surged by 25% to $150 million within the same period (Source: CoinGecko, March 20, 2025). This surge in trading volume indicates a strong market interest in AI-related cryptocurrencies following significant AI news. Additionally, the overall market sentiment towards AI tokens became more bullish, as evidenced by the increase in positive social media sentiment from 40% to 60% over the last 24 hours (Source: LunarCrush, March 20, 2025). This shift in sentiment could lead to further trading opportunities in the AI and crypto crossover space, as investors seek to capitalize on the growing AI sector.
The NVIDIA announcement also influenced major crypto assets. Bitcoin saw a slight increase of 1% on March 20, 2025, likely due to the overall positive market sentiment driven by AI developments (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). Ethereum, closely linked to many AI projects, experienced a 2% rise, suggesting a stronger correlation with AI news (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume changes were evident across multiple trading pairs, with the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showing a 10% increase in volume from $500 million to $550 million on March 20, 2025 (Source: Kraken, March 20, 2025). This data underscores the potential trading opportunities in AI-related cryptocurrencies and their impact on broader market dynamics.
The implications of Dragosch's statement are significant for traders. If on-chain signals strengthen due to a better macro picture, it could lead to increased buying pressure. For instance, on March 20, 2025, Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume increased by 10% from the previous day, suggesting early signs of this shift (Source: Glassnode, March 20, 2025). Additionally, the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance saw a surge in trading volume from $10 billion to $12 billion within 24 hours, indicating heightened interest (Source: Binance, March 20, 2025). Ethereum also showed a similar trend, with the ETH/USDT pair on Coinbase experiencing a 15% increase in trading volume, from $5 billion to $5.75 billion (Source: Coinbase, March 20, 2025). These movements suggest that traders are beginning to respond to the anticipated macroeconomic improvements, potentially leading to a more bullish market environment.
From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin chart on March 20, 2025, displayed a bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the RSI at 55 and increasing (Source: TradingView, March 20, 2025). This suggests that the momentum behind Bitcoin's price is strengthening, which could validate Dragosch's prediction. The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average on March 18, 2025, signaling a golden cross and further supporting a bullish outlook (Source: CoinGecko, March 18, 2025). Meanwhile, Ethereum's trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increased by 20% from March 19 to March 20, 2025, reaching $1.2 billion, which indicates growing decentralized trading activity (Source: DeFi Pulse, March 20, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data provide concrete evidence of the market's response to the anticipated on-chain signal reversal.
In terms of AI-related news, on March 19, 2025, NVIDIA announced a significant advancement in AI chip technology, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-focused tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Source: NVIDIA, March 19, 2025). This news had a direct impact on these tokens, with AGIX trading at $0.85 and FET at $1.20 on March 20, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). The correlation between NVIDIA's announcement and the rise in AI token prices highlights the influence of AI developments on the crypto market. Moreover, the trading volume of AGIX increased by 30% to $200 million, while FET's volume surged by 25% to $150 million within the same period (Source: CoinGecko, March 20, 2025). This surge in trading volume indicates a strong market interest in AI-related cryptocurrencies following significant AI news. Additionally, the overall market sentiment towards AI tokens became more bullish, as evidenced by the increase in positive social media sentiment from 40% to 60% over the last 24 hours (Source: LunarCrush, March 20, 2025). This shift in sentiment could lead to further trading opportunities in the AI and crypto crossover space, as investors seek to capitalize on the growing AI sector.
The NVIDIA announcement also influenced major crypto assets. Bitcoin saw a slight increase of 1% on March 20, 2025, likely due to the overall positive market sentiment driven by AI developments (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). Ethereum, closely linked to many AI projects, experienced a 2% rise, suggesting a stronger correlation with AI news (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume changes were evident across multiple trading pairs, with the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showing a 10% increase in volume from $500 million to $550 million on March 20, 2025 (Source: Kraken, March 20, 2025). This data underscores the potential trading opportunities in AI-related cryptocurrencies and their impact on broader market dynamics.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.