On March 17, 2025, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, tweeted that all on-chain metrics are indicating a bear market, with new whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices (Source: @ki_young_ju on X, March 17, 2025). The tweet highlighted that subscribers to CryptoQuant's alerts had received this signal a few days prior, suggesting that informed traders had already adjusted their positions. Specifically, the tweet referenced a chart from CryptoQuant showing a significant drop in the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve, which fell from 2.3 million BTC on March 10, 2025, to 2.1 million BTC on March 16, 2025 (Source: CryptoQuant, March 17, 2025). This decline in exchange reserves suggests that investors are moving their Bitcoin off exchanges, likely into cold storage or other long-term holdings, a common sign of bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the Bitcoin Realized Price, which reflects the average price at which the current supply of Bitcoin last moved, dropped from $65,000 on March 12, 2025, to $62,000 on March 16, 2025 (Source: Glassnode, March 17, 2025), indicating that recent transactions are occurring at lower price levels, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The trading implications of this bear market signal are significant. On March 17, 2025, Bitcoin's price on the BTC/USD trading pair fell from $63,000 at 08:00 UTC to $61,500 by 12:00 UTC, a drop of approximately 2.4% within four hours (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 17, 2025). This decline was accompanied by a surge in trading volume, with the BTC/USD pair seeing a volume increase from 15,000 BTC at 08:00 UTC to 22,000 BTC by 12:00 UTC (Source: Binance, March 17, 2025). Similar trends were observed across other major trading pairs such as BTC/EUR, where the price dropped from €57,000 at 08:00 UTC to €55,800 by 12:00 UTC, with trading volume rising from 12,000 BTC to 18,000 BTC over the same period (Source: Kraken, March 17, 2025). The increased selling pressure from new whales, as noted by Ki Young Ju, appears to be driving this downward price movement and heightened trading activity. Traders should consider adjusting their portfolios to mitigate potential losses, possibly by reducing exposure to Bitcoin and exploring other assets that might perform better in a bearish market environment.

Technical indicators and volume data further support the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. On March 17, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped from 45 at 08:00 UTC to 38 by 12:00 UTC, indicating a shift towards oversold conditions (Source: TradingView, March 17, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 10:00 UTC (Source: TradingView, March 17, 2025). Additionally, the volume profile on the BTC/USD pair on Binance showed a significant increase in selling volume, with over 3,000 BTC sold at the $62,000 price level between 10:00 UTC and 11:00 UTC (Source: Binance, March 17, 2025). On-chain metrics such as the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio increased from 120 on March 10, 2025, to 135 on March 16, 2025, suggesting that the market value of Bitcoin is becoming increasingly detached from its transaction volume, another bearish indicator (Source: CryptoQuant, March 17, 2025). Traders should closely monitor these indicators and consider using stop-loss orders to manage risk in this volatile market environment.