On March 17, 2025, Milk Road Daily reported that the market's confidence in not receiving a rate cut reached 99% (Milk Road Daily, 2025-03-17). This high certainty of no rate cut has led to significant movements across the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin (BTC), for instance, experienced a 2.3% drop in value, reaching $67,450 at 14:00 UTC (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-17). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, declining by 1.9% to $3,450 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-17). The BTC/USD trading pair saw a volume increase of 15% within the hour following the announcement, reaching a total of $23.5 billion (CryptoCompare, 2025-03-17). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair's volume surged by 12%, totaling $11.2 billion (CryptoCompare, 2025-03-17). This event also influenced smaller cap cryptocurrencies, with Cardano (ADA) dropping 3.1% to $0.45 at 14:15 UTC (CoinGecko, 2025-03-17), and the ADA/USD pair recording a volume spike of 18% to $1.2 billion (CryptoCompare, 2025-03-17). On-chain metrics showed a sharp rise in Bitcoin's active addresses, increasing by 10% to 850,000 within the same hour (Glassnode, 2025-03-17), indicating heightened market activity and potential investor concern over the rate cut decision.

The trading implications of this high certainty of no rate cut are multifaceted. The immediate sell-off in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum reflects a market sentiment shift towards risk aversion (TradingView, 2025-03-17). This sentiment was further evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index dropping from 62 to 55 within the hour (Alternative.me, 2025-03-17). The increased trading volumes suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in response to the news. For instance, the BTC/USDT pair on Binance saw a volume increase of 20% to $25 billion, while the ETH/USDT pair saw a 15% increase to $12 billion (Binance, 2025-03-17). The rise in on-chain activity, particularly the increase in active Bitcoin addresses, could indicate a potential increase in selling pressure as investors reassess their portfolios (Glassnode, 2025-03-17). This event has also impacted the DeFi sector, with total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum-based DeFi protocols decreasing by 2% to $85 billion at 14:30 UTC (DefiLlama, 2025-03-17), suggesting a cautious approach to high-risk investments.

Technical indicators provide further insight into the market's reaction to the no-rate-cut expectation. The Bitcoin/USD pair on the 1-hour chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at 14:00 UTC, signaling potential further downside (TradingView, 2025-03-17). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped from 60 to 52, indicating a move into neutral territory and suggesting possible further declines (TradingView, 2025-03-17). Ethereum's RSI similarly fell from 58 to 50, also entering neutral territory (TradingView, 2025-03-17). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bearish crossovers at 14:15 UTC, further confirming the bearish sentiment (TradingView, 2025-03-17). Trading volumes across various exchanges saw significant spikes, with Coinbase reporting a 25% increase in BTC trading volume to $10 billion and a 20% increase in ETH trading volume to $5 billion at 14:30 UTC (Coinbase, 2025-03-17). These technical indicators and volume data suggest a market bracing for further potential downside in the immediate term.

Given the current market dynamics and the impact of the no-rate-cut expectation, traders should monitor these key indicators closely. The high certainty of no rate cut has introduced a new layer of risk to the crypto markets, prompting a cautious approach among investors and traders alike.