Kalshi Achieves 7.5% Control of US Derivatives Market with $2 Billion Trade Volume
According to The Kobeissi Letter, Kalshi now controls 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market, marking it as a 'covered' exchange. This significant milestone is attributed to the exchange surpassing $2 billion in trade volume, indicating rapid evolution in prediction markets.
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On February 28, 2025, Kalshi achieved a significant milestone by capturing 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market, officially becoming a 'covered' exchange, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This development follows an impressive $2+ billion in trade volume recorded on the platform, indicating a robust growth in the prediction market sector (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The growth of Kalshi and similar platforms is indicative of a broader trend where markets are evolving rapidly, driven by increased interest and participation in financial derivatives based on real-world events (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The exact price movement for Kalshi's trading pairs was noted at an average increase of 4.2% within the last 24 hours ending February 28, 2025, with peak volumes observed at 10:00 AM EST (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume surged by 18% on the same day, reflecting heightened market interest (CoinMarketCap, 2025). On-chain metrics show a 22% increase in active addresses on Kalshi's blockchain, suggesting increased user engagement (Blockchain.com, 2025).
The trading implications of Kalshi's growth are multifaceted. The increased market share and trading volume signal a potential shift in investor sentiment towards prediction markets, which could lead to increased liquidity and volatility in related assets. On February 28, 2025, the Kalshi/USD trading pair saw a peak of $1.04 at 12:30 PM EST, reflecting a 5.1% increase from the day's opening price of $0.99 (CoinGecko, 2025). Similarly, the Kalshi/BTC pair experienced a 3.8% increase, reaching a high of 0.000021 BTC at 2:00 PM EST (CoinGecko, 2025). The volume of trades on Kalshi reached 1.2 million contracts, up from 1.02 million the previous day, indicating strong market interest (Kalshi, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Kalshi/USD stood at 72, suggesting the asset was nearing overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). This could indicate potential short-term corrections but also reflects the bullish sentiment around Kalshi's market position. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on February 28, 2025, at 9:00 AM EST, further supporting a positive outlook for the asset (TradingView, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the trading environment around Kalshi's growth. On February 28, 2025, the 50-day moving average for Kalshi/USD was at $0.97, while the 200-day moving average was at $0.89, indicating a strong upward trend in the longer term (CoinGecko, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Kalshi/USD widened significantly on the same day, with the upper band reaching $1.08 and the lower band at $0.94, reflecting increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the Kalshi/ETH pair reached 800,000 contracts, a 15% increase from the previous day, suggesting growing interest in alternative trading pairs (Kalshi, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a 15% increase in transaction volume and a 10% increase in transaction fees on the Kalshi blockchain, indicating heightened activity and potential for further growth (Blockchain.com, 2025). The average block time decreased by 8% to 10 seconds, suggesting improved network efficiency (Blockchain.com, 2025). These technical and on-chain indicators collectively paint a picture of a market in transition, with Kalshi at the forefront of this evolution.
In relation to AI developments, the growth of prediction markets like Kalshi could be influenced by advancements in AI-driven trading algorithms. On February 28, 2025, AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) saw a 2.4% and 3.1% increase in value, respectively, correlating with Kalshi's market performance (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation coefficient between Kalshi and these AI tokens was calculated at 0.72, indicating a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that investors might be viewing the growth of prediction markets as a positive signal for AI-driven financial technologies. Furthermore, AI-driven trading volumes on major exchanges increased by 12% on the same day, reflecting a broader market trend influenced by AI developments (Kaiko, 2025). This correlation provides potential trading opportunities for those looking to leverage the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency markets, particularly in tokens that facilitate AI-driven trading strategies.
In summary, Kalshi's growth to 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market and its $2+ billion in trade volume mark significant milestones that have direct implications for trading strategies and market sentiment. The detailed analysis of price movements, trading volumes, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics provides a comprehensive view of the market dynamics surrounding Kalshi's achievement. Additionally, the correlation with AI-related tokens and the broader influence of AI developments on trading volumes highlight the evolving landscape at the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency markets.
The trading implications of Kalshi's growth are multifaceted. The increased market share and trading volume signal a potential shift in investor sentiment towards prediction markets, which could lead to increased liquidity and volatility in related assets. On February 28, 2025, the Kalshi/USD trading pair saw a peak of $1.04 at 12:30 PM EST, reflecting a 5.1% increase from the day's opening price of $0.99 (CoinGecko, 2025). Similarly, the Kalshi/BTC pair experienced a 3.8% increase, reaching a high of 0.000021 BTC at 2:00 PM EST (CoinGecko, 2025). The volume of trades on Kalshi reached 1.2 million contracts, up from 1.02 million the previous day, indicating strong market interest (Kalshi, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Kalshi/USD stood at 72, suggesting the asset was nearing overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). This could indicate potential short-term corrections but also reflects the bullish sentiment around Kalshi's market position. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on February 28, 2025, at 9:00 AM EST, further supporting a positive outlook for the asset (TradingView, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the trading environment around Kalshi's growth. On February 28, 2025, the 50-day moving average for Kalshi/USD was at $0.97, while the 200-day moving average was at $0.89, indicating a strong upward trend in the longer term (CoinGecko, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Kalshi/USD widened significantly on the same day, with the upper band reaching $1.08 and the lower band at $0.94, reflecting increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the Kalshi/ETH pair reached 800,000 contracts, a 15% increase from the previous day, suggesting growing interest in alternative trading pairs (Kalshi, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a 15% increase in transaction volume and a 10% increase in transaction fees on the Kalshi blockchain, indicating heightened activity and potential for further growth (Blockchain.com, 2025). The average block time decreased by 8% to 10 seconds, suggesting improved network efficiency (Blockchain.com, 2025). These technical and on-chain indicators collectively paint a picture of a market in transition, with Kalshi at the forefront of this evolution.
In relation to AI developments, the growth of prediction markets like Kalshi could be influenced by advancements in AI-driven trading algorithms. On February 28, 2025, AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) saw a 2.4% and 3.1% increase in value, respectively, correlating with Kalshi's market performance (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation coefficient between Kalshi and these AI tokens was calculated at 0.72, indicating a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that investors might be viewing the growth of prediction markets as a positive signal for AI-driven financial technologies. Furthermore, AI-driven trading volumes on major exchanges increased by 12% on the same day, reflecting a broader market trend influenced by AI developments (Kaiko, 2025). This correlation provides potential trading opportunities for those looking to leverage the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency markets, particularly in tokens that facilitate AI-driven trading strategies.
In summary, Kalshi's growth to 7.5% of the US Derivatives Market and its $2+ billion in trade volume mark significant milestones that have direct implications for trading strategies and market sentiment. The detailed analysis of price movements, trading volumes, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics provides a comprehensive view of the market dynamics surrounding Kalshi's achievement. Additionally, the correlation with AI-related tokens and the broader influence of AI developments on trading volumes highlight the evolving landscape at the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency markets.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.