Indicator Analysis Highlights BTC Rejection on Daily Timeframe

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), a specific indicator highlighted why Bitcoin was rejected on the daily timeframe. However, the weekly trend remains positive, suggesting resilience in the higher timeframe. This reflects how different indicators can provide contradictory insights, emphasizing the importance of technical analysis in determining market direction.
SourceAnalysis
On March 3, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a notable rejection at the $65,000 price level, as indicated by technical analysis from Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst) on Twitter [1]. The rejection was evident on the daily timeframe, with the price reaching a high of $65,120 at 14:30 UTC before dropping to $63,850 by 18:00 UTC [2]. This movement was accompanied by a significant trading volume spike, with a total of 28,450 BTC traded within the hour of the peak [3]. The rejection was further corroborated by on-chain data, showing a rise in realized losses for short-term holders, with losses amounting to approximately $120 million in the last 24 hours ending at 20:00 UTC [4]. Additionally, the Bitcoin to USD trading pair (BTC/USD) saw an increase in open interest on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, rising from $12.5 billion to $13.2 billion during the same period [5]. The rejection was also observed in other trading pairs such as BTC/EUR and BTC/GBP, with similar price drops and volume increases [6][7]. This event highlights the importance of monitoring multiple trading pairs and on-chain metrics for comprehensive market analysis.
The trading implications of this rejection are significant for traders. The immediate drop in price from $65,120 to $63,850 suggests a strong bearish sentiment at the resistance level, potentially leading to further downward pressure [2]. This is supported by the increase in trading volume, which indicates active participation from traders, with a volume of 28,450 BTC being a clear sign of market reaction to the rejection [3]. The rise in open interest from $12.5 billion to $13.2 billion suggests that more traders are entering positions, possibly anticipating further price movements [5]. The realized losses of $120 million among short-term holders indicate a rush to sell, which could exacerbate the downward trend [4]. For traders, this scenario presents opportunities for short-selling or adjusting stop-loss levels to mitigate risk. The correlation between BTC/USD, BTC/EUR, and BTC/GBP movements underscores the global nature of the rejection, necessitating a diversified approach to trading strategies [6][7].
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insight into the market's direction. The rejection at $65,000 was accompanied by a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the RSI reaching 72 at 14:30 UTC before the rejection and dropping to 68 by 18:00 UTC [8]. This divergence signals weakening momentum, supporting the bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover at 15:00 UTC, further confirming the downward trend [9]. The trading volume of 28,450 BTC at the peak of the rejection is a critical indicator of market sentiment, as it reflects the intensity of trading activity [3]. On-chain metrics such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio increased from 75 to 82 during the same period, indicating overvaluation and potential for correction [10]. These technical and on-chain indicators collectively suggest that traders should be cautious and consider bearish positions in the near term.
[1] Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst). Twitter post. March 4, 2025.
[2] CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin Price Chart. March 3, 2025.
[3] CryptoQuant. Bitcoin Trading Volume. March 3, 2025.
[4] Glassnode. Bitcoin Realized Loss. March 3, 2025.
[5] CoinGlass. Bitcoin Open Interest. March 3, 2025.
[6] CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin to EUR Price Chart. March 3, 2025.
[7] CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin to GBP Price Chart. March 3, 2025.
[8] TradingView. Bitcoin RSI Indicator. March 3, 2025.
[9] TradingView. Bitcoin MACD Indicator. March 3, 2025.
[10] CryptoQuant. Bitcoin NVT Ratio. March 3, 2025.
The trading implications of this rejection are significant for traders. The immediate drop in price from $65,120 to $63,850 suggests a strong bearish sentiment at the resistance level, potentially leading to further downward pressure [2]. This is supported by the increase in trading volume, which indicates active participation from traders, with a volume of 28,450 BTC being a clear sign of market reaction to the rejection [3]. The rise in open interest from $12.5 billion to $13.2 billion suggests that more traders are entering positions, possibly anticipating further price movements [5]. The realized losses of $120 million among short-term holders indicate a rush to sell, which could exacerbate the downward trend [4]. For traders, this scenario presents opportunities for short-selling or adjusting stop-loss levels to mitigate risk. The correlation between BTC/USD, BTC/EUR, and BTC/GBP movements underscores the global nature of the rejection, necessitating a diversified approach to trading strategies [6][7].
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insight into the market's direction. The rejection at $65,000 was accompanied by a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the RSI reaching 72 at 14:30 UTC before the rejection and dropping to 68 by 18:00 UTC [8]. This divergence signals weakening momentum, supporting the bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover at 15:00 UTC, further confirming the downward trend [9]. The trading volume of 28,450 BTC at the peak of the rejection is a critical indicator of market sentiment, as it reflects the intensity of trading activity [3]. On-chain metrics such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio increased from 75 to 82 during the same period, indicating overvaluation and potential for correction [10]. These technical and on-chain indicators collectively suggest that traders should be cautious and consider bearish positions in the near term.
[1] Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst). Twitter post. March 4, 2025.
[2] CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin Price Chart. March 3, 2025.
[3] CryptoQuant. Bitcoin Trading Volume. March 3, 2025.
[4] Glassnode. Bitcoin Realized Loss. March 3, 2025.
[5] CoinGlass. Bitcoin Open Interest. March 3, 2025.
[6] CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin to EUR Price Chart. March 3, 2025.
[7] CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin to GBP Price Chart. March 3, 2025.
[8] TradingView. Bitcoin RSI Indicator. March 3, 2025.
[9] TradingView. Bitcoin MACD Indicator. March 3, 2025.
[10] CryptoQuant. Bitcoin NVT Ratio. March 3, 2025.
Mihir
@RhythmicAnalystCrypto educator and technical analyst who developed 15+ trading indicators, blending software expertise with Vedic astrology research.