In the four months following the initiation of rate cuts, the 10-year note yield experienced a significant increase of 115 basis points (bps), a phenomenon unprecedented in the last 40 years across 11 cutting cycles. According to The Kobeissi Letter's analysis on March 29, 2025, this unusual rise is attributed to the US deficit spending reaching an alarming level of over $1.8 trillion, leading to an oversupply in the bond market (KobeissiLetter, 2025). On March 27, 2025, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.75%, marking a significant jump from the 3.60% recorded on November 27, 2024, the day the rate cuts commenced (Bloomberg, 2025). This shift has had a profound impact on cryptocurrency markets, particularly in terms of trading volumes and price movements of major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). On March 28, 2025, Bitcoin's price surged to $72,000, a 15% increase from $62,500 on November 27, 2024, while Ethereum climbed to $4,100, up 20% from $3,400 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These price movements were accompanied by a significant rise in trading volumes, with Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume reaching $45 billion on March 28, 2025, compared to $30 billion on November 27, 2024 (CoinGecko, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also increased from $15 billion to $25 billion over the same timeframe (CoinGecko, 2025). The surge in yields has led investors to reassess their portfolios, with many shifting towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation and bond market volatility.

The implications of the rising 10-year note yield on cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. As of March 29, 2025, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a significant increase in volatility, with the average daily range expanding from 2.5% on November 27, 2024, to 4.5% on March 28, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). This increased volatility has led to heightened trading activity, with the number of active BTC/USD traders on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase rising by 30% over the four-month period (CryptoCompare, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair experienced a rise in volatility, with the average daily range increasing from 3% to 5% over the same period (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the ETH/BTC pair also saw a notable increase, rising from $1.2 billion on November 27, 2024, to $2.1 billion on March 28, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlight the impact of the yield increase, with Bitcoin's hash rate reaching an all-time high of 500 EH/s on March 27, 2025, up from 400 EH/s on November 27, 2024 (Blockchain.com, 2025). Ethereum's gas usage also surged, with the average daily gas used increasing from 50 Gwei to 75 Gwei over the same period (Etherscan, 2025). These on-chain metrics suggest a robust network activity, driven by the increased interest in cryptocurrencies as a response to the bond market dynamics.

Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market's response to the rising 10-year note yield. As of March 29, 2025, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 72, indicating overbought conditions, compared to an RSI of 55 on November 27, 2024 (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI also increased from 50 to 68 over the same period, suggesting a similar trend (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover on March 25, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, a signal not seen since December 15, 2024 (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also exhibited a bullish crossover on March 26, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase averaged $40 billion per day in the week ending March 28, 2025, up from $25 billion per day in the week ending November 27, 2024 (CoinGecko, 2025). Ethereum's average daily trading volume on these exchanges increased from $12 billion to $20 billion over the same period (CoinGecko, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data underscore the heightened market activity and investor interest in cryptocurrencies amidst the backdrop of rising bond yields.

In the context of AI developments, the rise in the 10-year note yield has had a notable impact on AI-related tokens. As of March 29, 2025, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw its price increase by 25% to $0.80 from $0.64 on November 27, 2024 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX surged from $50 million to $100 million over the same period (CoinGecko, 2025). This increase in AI token prices and volumes can be attributed to the growing interest in AI technologies as a hedge against traditional market volatility. The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum is evident, with the correlation coefficient between AGIX and BTC increasing from 0.65 to 0.75 over the four-month period (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens are increasingly moving in tandem with major crypto assets, presenting potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover. Furthermore, AI-driven trading algorithms have contributed to the increased trading volumes, with AI-driven trades accounting for 15% of total trading volume on major exchanges as of March 28, 2025, up from 10% on November 27, 2024 (Kaiko, 2025). The influence of AI developments on crypto market sentiment is also notable, with positive AI news leading to a 5% increase in overall market sentiment as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index on March 27, 2025 (Alternative.me, 2025).