Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs on Tech Stocks
According to @KobeissiLetter, the re-emergence of the trade war, specifically Trump's upcoming April 2nd reciprocal tariffs, is predicted to increase market uncertainty rather than conclude it. This uncertainty is cited as a reason for the $400 billion decrease in tech stock values this week.
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On March 26, 2025, @KobeissiLetter tweeted about the re-emergence of the trade war, highlighting market expectations around Trump's April 2nd reciprocal tariffs day as the potential end of uncertainty (KobeissiLetter, 2025). However, the tweet suggests that this day might lead to the opposite effect, with tech stocks already experiencing a decline of over $400 billion in the preceding week (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The tweet also hints at forthcoming events that could further impact the markets. This statement was made against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, which have direct implications for cryptocurrency markets, especially those tied to technology sectors like AI-related tokens (CoinMarketCap, 2025). At the time of the tweet, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,000, down 2.5% from its previous day's close of $66,650 on March 25, 2025 (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) saw a similar decline, trading at $3,200, down 2.3% from $3,275 on the same date (Binance, 2025). AI-focused tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) also experienced downturns, with AGIX dropping 3.1% to $0.75 from $0.774, and FET falling 2.9% to $0.55 from $0.566 (KuCoin, 2025). These price movements reflect broader market sentiments affected by geopolitical developments and anticipated tariff impacts on tech sectors (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on March 26, 2025, was approximately $35 billion, a 15% increase from the $30.4 billion recorded on March 25, 2025, suggesting heightened activity and potential volatility in response to the news (CryptoCompare, 2025). Similarly, ETH's trading volume surged by 12% to $15.5 billion from $13.8 billion over the same period (CoinGecko, 2025). For AI tokens, AGIX's volume increased by 10% to $200 million from $182 million, while FET's volume rose by 8% to $150 million from $139 million, indicating significant interest in these assets amidst market uncertainty (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
The trading implications of the trade war's resurgence are multifaceted, particularly for cryptocurrencies linked to the tech sector. As noted, tech stocks lost over $400 billion in value in the week leading up to the tweet, which likely contributed to the observed declines in crypto prices (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The anticipation of Trump's April 2nd tariffs has introduced additional uncertainty, leading to increased volatility and trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies and AI tokens (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Specifically, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a spike in volume to $35 billion on March 26, 2025, up from $30.4 billion the previous day, indicating heightened market activity (CryptoCompare, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair's volume increased to $15.5 billion from $13.8 billion, reflecting a similar trend (CoinGecko, 2025). For AI tokens, the AGIX/USD pair saw its volume rise to $200 million from $182 million, while the FET/USD pair's volume grew to $150 million from $139 million (KuCoin, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in anticipation of further market movements. The correlation between tech stocks and crypto prices is evident, with AI tokens like AGIX and FET experiencing declines in line with broader market trends (TradingView, 2025). This underscores the interconnectedness of traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, particularly those associated with technology and AI sectors.
Technical indicators further elucidate the market dynamics at play. On March 26, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 45, indicating a neutral market condition, while Ethereum's RSI was at 42, also suggesting a balanced market state (TradingView, 2025). However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bearish signals, with BTC's MACD at -120 and ETH's at -50, indicating potential downward momentum (CoinMarketCap, 2025). For AI tokens, AGIX's RSI was at 40, and FET's at 38, both suggesting slightly oversold conditions (KuCoin, 2025). The trading volumes for these assets, as previously mentioned, were significantly higher on March 26, 2025, compared to the previous day, with BTC's volume at $35 billion, ETH's at $15.5 billion, AGIX's at $200 million, and FET's at $150 million (CryptoCompare, CoinGecko, KuCoin, 2025). These volume spikes, coupled with the bearish MACD signals, suggest that traders are preparing for potential further declines. On-chain metrics also provide insights into market sentiment. For instance, the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% to 1.2 million on March 26, 2025, from 1.14 million the previous day, indicating heightened network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's active addresses rose by 4% to 800,000 from 769,000 (Etherscan, 2025). For AI tokens, AGIX saw a 3% increase in active addresses to 50,000 from 48,500, while FET's active addresses grew by 2% to 40,000 from 39,200 (SingularityNET, Fetch.AI, 2025). These on-chain metrics further corroborate the observed trading volume increases and suggest a market bracing for potential volatility.
In the context of AI-related news, the trade war's resurgence could have significant implications for AI tokens. The interconnectedness of tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, particularly AI tokens, means that any negative sentiment in tech markets can directly impact AI token prices. As tech stocks lost over $400 billion in the week leading up to the tweet, AI tokens like AGIX and FET also experienced declines, with AGIX dropping 3.1% to $0.75 and FET falling 2.9% to $0.55 on March 26, 2025 (KuCoin, 2025). The correlation between these assets and broader market trends is evident, with AI tokens closely following the movements of tech stocks. Furthermore, the increased trading volumes for AI tokens, with AGIX's volume rising to $200 million and FET's to $150 million, suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in anticipation of further market movements influenced by the trade war (KuCoin, 2025). The AI-crypto market correlation is further highlighted by the fact that AI developments and their market impact are closely monitored by traders, with AI-driven trading volume changes being a key indicator of market sentiment. As AI technologies continue to evolve, their influence on crypto market sentiment and trading volumes remains a critical area of focus for traders seeking to capitalize on potential opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover.
The trading implications of the trade war's resurgence are multifaceted, particularly for cryptocurrencies linked to the tech sector. As noted, tech stocks lost over $400 billion in value in the week leading up to the tweet, which likely contributed to the observed declines in crypto prices (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The anticipation of Trump's April 2nd tariffs has introduced additional uncertainty, leading to increased volatility and trading volumes across major cryptocurrencies and AI tokens (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Specifically, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a spike in volume to $35 billion on March 26, 2025, up from $30.4 billion the previous day, indicating heightened market activity (CryptoCompare, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair's volume increased to $15.5 billion from $13.8 billion, reflecting a similar trend (CoinGecko, 2025). For AI tokens, the AGIX/USD pair saw its volume rise to $200 million from $182 million, while the FET/USD pair's volume grew to $150 million from $139 million (KuCoin, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in anticipation of further market movements. The correlation between tech stocks and crypto prices is evident, with AI tokens like AGIX and FET experiencing declines in line with broader market trends (TradingView, 2025). This underscores the interconnectedness of traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, particularly those associated with technology and AI sectors.
Technical indicators further elucidate the market dynamics at play. On March 26, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 45, indicating a neutral market condition, while Ethereum's RSI was at 42, also suggesting a balanced market state (TradingView, 2025). However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bearish signals, with BTC's MACD at -120 and ETH's at -50, indicating potential downward momentum (CoinMarketCap, 2025). For AI tokens, AGIX's RSI was at 40, and FET's at 38, both suggesting slightly oversold conditions (KuCoin, 2025). The trading volumes for these assets, as previously mentioned, were significantly higher on March 26, 2025, compared to the previous day, with BTC's volume at $35 billion, ETH's at $15.5 billion, AGIX's at $200 million, and FET's at $150 million (CryptoCompare, CoinGecko, KuCoin, 2025). These volume spikes, coupled with the bearish MACD signals, suggest that traders are preparing for potential further declines. On-chain metrics also provide insights into market sentiment. For instance, the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% to 1.2 million on March 26, 2025, from 1.14 million the previous day, indicating heightened network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's active addresses rose by 4% to 800,000 from 769,000 (Etherscan, 2025). For AI tokens, AGIX saw a 3% increase in active addresses to 50,000 from 48,500, while FET's active addresses grew by 2% to 40,000 from 39,200 (SingularityNET, Fetch.AI, 2025). These on-chain metrics further corroborate the observed trading volume increases and suggest a market bracing for potential volatility.
In the context of AI-related news, the trade war's resurgence could have significant implications for AI tokens. The interconnectedness of tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, particularly AI tokens, means that any negative sentiment in tech markets can directly impact AI token prices. As tech stocks lost over $400 billion in the week leading up to the tweet, AI tokens like AGIX and FET also experienced declines, with AGIX dropping 3.1% to $0.75 and FET falling 2.9% to $0.55 on March 26, 2025 (KuCoin, 2025). The correlation between these assets and broader market trends is evident, with AI tokens closely following the movements of tech stocks. Furthermore, the increased trading volumes for AI tokens, with AGIX's volume rising to $200 million and FET's to $150 million, suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in anticipation of further market movements influenced by the trade war (KuCoin, 2025). The AI-crypto market correlation is further highlighted by the fact that AI developments and their market impact are closely monitored by traders, with AI-driven trading volume changes being a key indicator of market sentiment. As AI technologies continue to evolve, their influence on crypto market sentiment and trading volumes remains a critical area of focus for traders seeking to capitalize on potential opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.