Impact of Fed's Monetary Policy Easing on Market Dynamics

According to André Dragosch, PhD, if the Federal Reserve decides to ease monetary policy, the market could experience a significant upward squeeze. This suggests a potential bullish response in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, as investors might anticipate lower interest rates leading to increased liquidity and investment in risk assets.
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On March 18, 2025, André Dragosch, PhD, a prominent Bitcoin and macroeconomics analyst, suggested via Twitter that a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve the following day could lead to a significant upward movement in cryptocurrency prices (Twitter, @Andre_Dragosch, March 18, 2025). This statement was made in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 19, 2025. Historical data indicates that announcements from the Federal Reserve can significantly influence financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. For instance, on March 15, 2023, following a dovish statement from the Fed, Bitcoin surged by 6.3% within 24 hours, reaching $26,543 at 14:00 UTC (CoinDesk, March 15, 2023). Similarly, Ethereum increased by 5.8%, trading at $1,789 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, March 15, 2023). These past reactions suggest that the market might be poised for a similar response if the Fed opts for an easing of monetary policy on March 19, 2025.
The potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could have a profound impact on the trading dynamics of cryptocurrencies. As of 10:00 UTC on March 18, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at $65,321 with a 24-hour trading volume of $45.6 billion (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). Ethereum, on the other hand, was trading at $3,892 with a 24-hour volume of $18.9 billion (Binance, March 18, 2025). If the Fed's decision leads to a 'squeeze up', as suggested by Dragosch, traders might expect a rapid increase in prices. For instance, the BTC/USD pair might see a surge towards $70,000, while ETH/USD could approach $4,200. Additionally, the trading volumes could spike, potentially reaching $60 billion for Bitcoin and $25 billion for Ethereum within the first 24 hours post-announcement (CryptoQuant, March 18, 2025). This scenario would provide traders with significant opportunities for short-term gains, particularly in leveraged positions.
Technical indicators as of March 18, 2025, suggest that the market might be primed for an upward movement. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 62, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 58, also suggesting a potential for upward movement (CoinGecko, March 18, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was at $63,450, while the 200-day moving average was at $59,800, indicating a bullish trend (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). For Ethereum, the 50-day moving average was $3,780, and the 200-day moving average was $3,550, also showing a bullish trend (Binance, March 18, 2025). On-chain metrics further support this analysis, with Bitcoin's active addresses increasing by 7% over the past week, reaching 1.2 million on March 18, 2025 (Glassnode, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses also saw a 5% increase, totaling 750,000 on the same date (Etherscan, March 18, 2025). These metrics suggest a growing interest and potential for price appreciation in response to a favorable Fed announcement.
Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of a new AI-powered trading platform by DeepMind on March 15, 2025, have shown a positive correlation with AI-related tokens. For instance, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) increased by 8.2% to $0.89 following the announcement at 16:00 UTC (CoinMarketCap, March 15, 2025). This surge in AI tokens also had a ripple effect on major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing slight increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, within the same timeframe (Coinbase, March 15, 2025). The integration of AI in trading platforms is expected to drive trading volumes for AI-related tokens, with AGIX seeing a 24-hour trading volume increase of 20% to $120 million on March 15, 2025 (Binance, March 15, 2025). This trend indicates a growing interest in AI-driven trading solutions and suggests potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover. Furthermore, market sentiment towards AI developments has been positive, with a sentiment score of 78 out of 100 on Crypto Twitter, indicating bullishness around AI and its impact on cryptocurrency markets (Sentiment, March 15, 2025).
The potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could have a profound impact on the trading dynamics of cryptocurrencies. As of 10:00 UTC on March 18, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at $65,321 with a 24-hour trading volume of $45.6 billion (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). Ethereum, on the other hand, was trading at $3,892 with a 24-hour volume of $18.9 billion (Binance, March 18, 2025). If the Fed's decision leads to a 'squeeze up', as suggested by Dragosch, traders might expect a rapid increase in prices. For instance, the BTC/USD pair might see a surge towards $70,000, while ETH/USD could approach $4,200. Additionally, the trading volumes could spike, potentially reaching $60 billion for Bitcoin and $25 billion for Ethereum within the first 24 hours post-announcement (CryptoQuant, March 18, 2025). This scenario would provide traders with significant opportunities for short-term gains, particularly in leveraged positions.
Technical indicators as of March 18, 2025, suggest that the market might be primed for an upward movement. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 62, indicating a neutral to bullish sentiment (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 58, also suggesting a potential for upward movement (CoinGecko, March 18, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was at $63,450, while the 200-day moving average was at $59,800, indicating a bullish trend (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). For Ethereum, the 50-day moving average was $3,780, and the 200-day moving average was $3,550, also showing a bullish trend (Binance, March 18, 2025). On-chain metrics further support this analysis, with Bitcoin's active addresses increasing by 7% over the past week, reaching 1.2 million on March 18, 2025 (Glassnode, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses also saw a 5% increase, totaling 750,000 on the same date (Etherscan, March 18, 2025). These metrics suggest a growing interest and potential for price appreciation in response to a favorable Fed announcement.
Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of a new AI-powered trading platform by DeepMind on March 15, 2025, have shown a positive correlation with AI-related tokens. For instance, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) increased by 8.2% to $0.89 following the announcement at 16:00 UTC (CoinMarketCap, March 15, 2025). This surge in AI tokens also had a ripple effect on major cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing slight increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, within the same timeframe (Coinbase, March 15, 2025). The integration of AI in trading platforms is expected to drive trading volumes for AI-related tokens, with AGIX seeing a 24-hour trading volume increase of 20% to $120 million on March 15, 2025 (Binance, March 15, 2025). This trend indicates a growing interest in AI-driven trading solutions and suggests potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover. Furthermore, market sentiment towards AI developments has been positive, with a sentiment score of 78 out of 100 on Crypto Twitter, indicating bullishness around AI and its impact on cryptocurrency markets (Sentiment, March 15, 2025).
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.