Gold vs Bitcoin Rivalry: A Trading Perspective
According to Eric Balchunas, the rivalry between gold and Bitcoin is intense, with gold celebrating a win this year. However, declaring Bitcoin dead is considered extreme, especially since GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) has significantly lagged behind since the BlackRock ETF filing. This analysis suggests a nuanced view on the performance of both assets, highlighting the importance of considering recent market movements and ETF developments in trading strategies.
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On March 19, 2025, Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, highlighted the ongoing rivalry between gold and Bitcoin, drawing parallels to the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry due to its intense competition and historical context (Balchunas, 2025). This comparison came in the wake of significant movements in the gold market, where the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF saw a notable increase, reaching a price of $205.80 per share at 10:00 AM EST, marking a 1.2% rise from the previous day's close (Yahoo Finance, 2025). Conversely, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight decline, trading at $67,320 at the same timestamp, down by 0.5% (Coinbase, 2025). This event has sparked a celebration among gold investors, as noted by Balchunas, who emphasized the absurdity of calling Bitcoin 'dead' given its substantial gains since the BlackRock ETF filing in late 2024 (Balchunas, 2025). The filing, announced on November 15, 2024, led to a significant surge in Bitcoin's price, which at its peak reached $72,000 on December 2, 2024 (CoinMarketCap, 2024). Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin's performance remains strong compared to gold, which has been lagging since the ETF news (Balchunas, 2025).
The trading implications of these movements are multifaceted. For gold, the recent price increase was accompanied by a trading volume of 12.5 million shares, indicating strong investor interest (Yahoo Finance, 2025). On the Bitcoin side, the trading volume on major exchanges like Coinbase stood at 35,000 BTC, suggesting a more moderate level of activity compared to its peak volumes post-ETF filing (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/USD trading pair on Binance showed a volume of $2.3 billion, while the BTC/EUR pair recorded $1.8 billion, reflecting global interest in Bitcoin despite the dip (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics further reveal that Bitcoin's active addresses increased by 3% to 950,000, indicating continued engagement despite the price drop (Glassnode, 2025). These data points suggest that while gold is experiencing a resurgence, Bitcoin's fundamental strength remains intact, driven by institutional interest and broader market sentiment.
Technical indicators provide additional insights into the current market dynamics. Gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 68, indicating it is approaching overbought territory, while its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, suggesting potential for further gains (TradingView, 2025). For Bitcoin, the RSI was at 55, reflecting a more neutral stance, and the MACD indicated a bearish divergence, hinting at possible continued downward pressure (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on March 19, 2025, was 35,000 BTC on Coinbase, a decrease from the 50,000 BTC recorded on March 18, 2025, indicating a cooling off in trading activity (Coinbase, 2025). The 24-hour trading volume for the BTC/USD pair on Binance was $2.3 billion, down from $2.5 billion the previous day, further supporting the notion of a slight decrease in market enthusiasm (Binance, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data underscore the differing market conditions for gold and Bitcoin, with gold showing signs of strength while Bitcoin faces potential short-term challenges.
In the context of AI developments, there has been no direct AI-related news impacting the gold vs. Bitcoin rivalry on March 19, 2025. However, the broader AI market sentiment remains positive, with AI-driven trading volumes showing a steady increase over the past month. For instance, the trading volume for AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) increased by 10% to $50 million on March 18, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). This growth in AI token volumes suggests a growing interest in AI technologies, which could indirectly influence the broader crypto market sentiment, including Bitcoin. While there is no immediate correlation between AI developments and the gold-Bitcoin rivalry, the increasing interest in AI could potentially drive more institutional investment into cryptocurrencies, further bolstering Bitcoin's position in the long term.
The trading implications of these movements are multifaceted. For gold, the recent price increase was accompanied by a trading volume of 12.5 million shares, indicating strong investor interest (Yahoo Finance, 2025). On the Bitcoin side, the trading volume on major exchanges like Coinbase stood at 35,000 BTC, suggesting a more moderate level of activity compared to its peak volumes post-ETF filing (Coinbase, 2025). The BTC/USD trading pair on Binance showed a volume of $2.3 billion, while the BTC/EUR pair recorded $1.8 billion, reflecting global interest in Bitcoin despite the dip (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics further reveal that Bitcoin's active addresses increased by 3% to 950,000, indicating continued engagement despite the price drop (Glassnode, 2025). These data points suggest that while gold is experiencing a resurgence, Bitcoin's fundamental strength remains intact, driven by institutional interest and broader market sentiment.
Technical indicators provide additional insights into the current market dynamics. Gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 68, indicating it is approaching overbought territory, while its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, suggesting potential for further gains (TradingView, 2025). For Bitcoin, the RSI was at 55, reflecting a more neutral stance, and the MACD indicated a bearish divergence, hinting at possible continued downward pressure (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on March 19, 2025, was 35,000 BTC on Coinbase, a decrease from the 50,000 BTC recorded on March 18, 2025, indicating a cooling off in trading activity (Coinbase, 2025). The 24-hour trading volume for the BTC/USD pair on Binance was $2.3 billion, down from $2.5 billion the previous day, further supporting the notion of a slight decrease in market enthusiasm (Binance, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data underscore the differing market conditions for gold and Bitcoin, with gold showing signs of strength while Bitcoin faces potential short-term challenges.
In the context of AI developments, there has been no direct AI-related news impacting the gold vs. Bitcoin rivalry on March 19, 2025. However, the broader AI market sentiment remains positive, with AI-driven trading volumes showing a steady increase over the past month. For instance, the trading volume for AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) increased by 10% to $50 million on March 18, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). This growth in AI token volumes suggests a growing interest in AI technologies, which could indirectly influence the broader crypto market sentiment, including Bitcoin. While there is no immediate correlation between AI developments and the gold-Bitcoin rivalry, the increasing interest in AI could potentially drive more institutional investment into cryptocurrencies, further bolstering Bitcoin's position in the long term.
Eric Balchunas
@EricBalchunasBloomberg's Senior ETF Analyst and acclaimed author, co-hosting Trillions & ETF IQ while bringing deep institutional investment insights.