Gold Market Cap Set to Surpass $20 Trillion as It Outperforms S&P 500

According to @KobeissiLetter, gold prices are surging, with the market cap poised to exceed a record $20 trillion. This surge comes as the S&P 500 has lost over $5 trillion in value. Over the past 12 months, gold's returns have more than quadrupled those of the S&P 500, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets.
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On March 12, 2025, gold prices experienced a significant surge, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The market cap of gold is now poised to surpass the $20 trillion mark, a stark contrast to the S&P 500, which has seen a decline of over $5 trillion in market value. Over the past 12 months, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than quadrupling its returns, highlighting a notable shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets (KobeissiLetter, 2025). At 10:00 AM EST on March 12, gold was trading at $2,350 per ounce, a 2.5% increase from the previous day's close of $2,293 (Bloomberg, 2025). This surge was accompanied by a trading volume of 3.2 million ounces, indicating strong market participation (CME Group, 2025). The gold/silver ratio also increased to 87.5, suggesting a preference for gold over silver in the current market environment (Kitco, 2025). In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 1.5% rise to $65,000 at 10:30 AM EST, reflecting a correlation with gold's performance as investors seek alternative stores of value (CoinDesk, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit with a 1.2% increase to $3,800 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also rose by 1.3% to $2.5 trillion (CryptoCompare, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed an increase in active addresses to 1.1 million, suggesting heightened interest in the asset (Glassnode, 2025). The surge in gold prices and its correlation with cryptocurrencies can be attributed to global economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures, driving investors towards assets perceived as hedges against economic instability (Bloomberg, 2025).
The surge in gold prices has direct implications for cryptocurrency trading, particularly for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are often viewed as digital gold. At 11:00 AM EST on March 12, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a volume of 15,000 BTC traded, a 20% increase from the previous day's volume of 12,500 BTC (Binance, 2025). This surge in trading activity indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies as alternative stores of value. The ETH/USD pair also experienced a significant volume increase, with 1.2 million ETH traded, up 15% from the previous day's 1.04 million ETH (Coinbase, 2025). The gold surge has also impacted other trading pairs such as BTC/GOLD and ETH/GOLD, with BTC/GOLD trading at 27.65 and ETH/GOLD at 1.62, both reflecting a positive correlation with gold prices (Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD stood at 68, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory, while the RSI for ETH/USD was at 65, suggesting a similar trend (TradingView, 2025). The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, further supporting the bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). The surge in gold prices has also led to increased interest in stablecoins, with the trading volume of USDT/USD rising by 10% to 2.5 billion USDT (Huobi, 2025). This increased interest in stablecoins could be attributed to investors seeking to maintain liquidity while still participating in the cryptocurrency market during times of economic uncertainty (CoinGecko, 2025).
Technical analysis of the gold surge and its impact on cryptocurrency markets reveals key indicators that traders should monitor. At 11:30 AM EST on March 12, the 50-day moving average (MA) for gold crossed above the 200-day MA, signaling a potential long-term bullish trend (Bloomberg, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for gold widened, with the upper band at $2,400 and the lower band at $2,300, indicating increased volatility in the market (Kitco, 2025). The trading volume for gold futures on the CME Group reached 3.5 million ounces, further confirming the strong market interest (CME Group, 2025). In the cryptocurrency market, the 50-day MA for BTC/USD also crossed above the 200-day MA, suggesting a similar bullish trend for Bitcoin (CoinDesk, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD widened, with the upper band at $67,000 and the lower band at $63,000, indicating increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market as well (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance reached 16,000 BTC, a 25% increase from the previous day, further supporting the bullish sentiment (Binance, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Ethereum showed a significant increase in gas fees, with the average gas price rising to 50 Gwei, suggesting heightened network activity (Etherscan, 2025). The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols also increased by 2% to $100 billion, indicating growing interest in decentralized finance amid the gold surge (DeFi Pulse, 2025). The correlation between gold and cryptocurrencies during this surge highlights the importance of monitoring both traditional and digital asset markets for trading opportunities (Bloomberg, 2025).
The surge in gold prices has direct implications for cryptocurrency trading, particularly for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are often viewed as digital gold. At 11:00 AM EST on March 12, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a volume of 15,000 BTC traded, a 20% increase from the previous day's volume of 12,500 BTC (Binance, 2025). This surge in trading activity indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies as alternative stores of value. The ETH/USD pair also experienced a significant volume increase, with 1.2 million ETH traded, up 15% from the previous day's 1.04 million ETH (Coinbase, 2025). The gold surge has also impacted other trading pairs such as BTC/GOLD and ETH/GOLD, with BTC/GOLD trading at 27.65 and ETH/GOLD at 1.62, both reflecting a positive correlation with gold prices (Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD stood at 68, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory, while the RSI for ETH/USD was at 65, suggesting a similar trend (TradingView, 2025). The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, further supporting the bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). The surge in gold prices has also led to increased interest in stablecoins, with the trading volume of USDT/USD rising by 10% to 2.5 billion USDT (Huobi, 2025). This increased interest in stablecoins could be attributed to investors seeking to maintain liquidity while still participating in the cryptocurrency market during times of economic uncertainty (CoinGecko, 2025).
Technical analysis of the gold surge and its impact on cryptocurrency markets reveals key indicators that traders should monitor. At 11:30 AM EST on March 12, the 50-day moving average (MA) for gold crossed above the 200-day MA, signaling a potential long-term bullish trend (Bloomberg, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for gold widened, with the upper band at $2,400 and the lower band at $2,300, indicating increased volatility in the market (Kitco, 2025). The trading volume for gold futures on the CME Group reached 3.5 million ounces, further confirming the strong market interest (CME Group, 2025). In the cryptocurrency market, the 50-day MA for BTC/USD also crossed above the 200-day MA, suggesting a similar bullish trend for Bitcoin (CoinDesk, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD widened, with the upper band at $67,000 and the lower band at $63,000, indicating increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market as well (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance reached 16,000 BTC, a 25% increase from the previous day, further supporting the bullish sentiment (Binance, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Ethereum showed a significant increase in gas fees, with the average gas price rising to 50 Gwei, suggesting heightened network activity (Etherscan, 2025). The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols also increased by 2% to $100 billion, indicating growing interest in decentralized finance amid the gold surge (DeFi Pulse, 2025). The correlation between gold and cryptocurrencies during this surge highlights the importance of monitoring both traditional and digital asset markets for trading opportunities (Bloomberg, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.