Foreign Stock Indices Surge as S&P 500 Declines 6.5%
According to The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 90% of foreign stock indices have outperformed the US market over the last 21 days, marking the highest percentage since the 2022 bear market. This trend coincides with a 6.5% decline in the S&P 500, highlighting a notable shift in market dynamics as investors may seek opportunities outside the US. The shift has been especially pronounced over the past three weeks.
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On March 24, 2025, a significant shift in global market performance was noted by The Kobeissi Letter, indicating that approximately 90% of foreign stock indices outperformed the US over the last 21 days, marking the highest percentage since the 2022 bear market (The Kobeissi Letter, 2025). This trend has been particularly pronounced over the past three weeks, as the S&P 500 experienced a decline of -6.5% during this period (The Kobeissi Letter, 2025). Simultaneously, the German DAX index, a key European benchmark, showed resilience and growth, reflecting broader international market dynamics (The Kobeissi Letter, 2025). This global market shift has direct implications for cryptocurrency markets, particularly in trading pairs involving US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) against major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). As of 10:00 AM UTC on March 24, 2025, the BTC/USD pair was trading at $67,450, a 2.1% increase from the previous day, while the ETH/USD pair was at $3,200, up by 1.8% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Conversely, the BTC/EUR pair saw a more significant rise of 2.8% to €61,900, and the ETH/EUR pair increased by 2.5% to €2,920, reflecting the stronger performance of the Euro against the USD (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest a potential shift in investor sentiment towards non-US assets, including cryptocurrencies, as they seek to capitalize on global market trends.
The trading implications of this global market shift are multifaceted. Firstly, the increased performance of foreign stock indices could lead to a reallocation of capital from US-based assets, including USDT-pegged cryptocurrencies, to those denominated in other currencies, such as EUR or JPY. This reallocation is already evident in the trading volumes of major crypto exchanges. For instance, on March 23, 2025, the 24-hour trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance was $12.5 billion, a 10% decrease from the previous week, while the BTC/EUR trading volume on the same exchange increased by 15% to €11.3 billion (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD volume on Coinbase dropped by 8% to $3.2 billion, while the ETH/EUR volume rose by 12% to €2.8 billion (Coinbase, 2025). These shifts in trading volume indicate a potential trend towards investing in cryptocurrencies denominated in stronger foreign currencies. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD stood at 58 on March 24, 2025, suggesting a neutral market sentiment, while the RSI for BTC/EUR was at 62, indicating slightly bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). Traders should consider these metrics when strategizing their positions in the market.
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the current market dynamics. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD on March 24, 2025, showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). In contrast, the MACD for BTC/EUR also indicated a bullish crossover but with a more pronounced divergence, hinting at stronger bullish sentiment in the European market (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics provide additional insights into market behavior. As of March 24, 2025, the Bitcoin Network Hashrate reached an all-time high of 400 EH/s, indicating robust network security and miner confidence (Blockchain.com, 2025). Moreover, the Bitcoin Active Addresses metric showed a 5% increase over the past week, reaching 1.2 million, suggesting growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). These on-chain metrics, combined with the technical indicators, support the notion that the cryptocurrency market is reacting to broader global market trends, with a particular focus on non-US assets.
In terms of AI-related developments, recent advancements in AI technology have had a notable impact on AI-focused cryptocurrencies. On March 22, 2025, the release of a new AI model by a leading tech company led to a 7% increase in the price of SingularityNET (AGIX) within 24 hours, reaching $0.85 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This surge was accompanied by a 20% increase in trading volume for AGIX, reaching $250 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI news and cryptocurrency performance is evident, as major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced slight gains of 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, on the same day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This suggests that positive AI developments can drive increased interest and investment in AI-related tokens, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover markets. Furthermore, the sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 15% increase in positive mentions of AI and cryptocurrency on March 22, 2025, indicating a growing enthusiasm for AI-driven trading strategies (Sentiment Analysis, 2025). Traders should monitor these AI developments closely, as they can significantly influence market sentiment and trading volumes in the cryptocurrency space.
The trading implications of this global market shift are multifaceted. Firstly, the increased performance of foreign stock indices could lead to a reallocation of capital from US-based assets, including USDT-pegged cryptocurrencies, to those denominated in other currencies, such as EUR or JPY. This reallocation is already evident in the trading volumes of major crypto exchanges. For instance, on March 23, 2025, the 24-hour trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance was $12.5 billion, a 10% decrease from the previous week, while the BTC/EUR trading volume on the same exchange increased by 15% to €11.3 billion (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD volume on Coinbase dropped by 8% to $3.2 billion, while the ETH/EUR volume rose by 12% to €2.8 billion (Coinbase, 2025). These shifts in trading volume indicate a potential trend towards investing in cryptocurrencies denominated in stronger foreign currencies. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD stood at 58 on March 24, 2025, suggesting a neutral market sentiment, while the RSI for BTC/EUR was at 62, indicating slightly bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). Traders should consider these metrics when strategizing their positions in the market.
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the current market dynamics. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD on March 24, 2025, showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). In contrast, the MACD for BTC/EUR also indicated a bullish crossover but with a more pronounced divergence, hinting at stronger bullish sentiment in the European market (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics provide additional insights into market behavior. As of March 24, 2025, the Bitcoin Network Hashrate reached an all-time high of 400 EH/s, indicating robust network security and miner confidence (Blockchain.com, 2025). Moreover, the Bitcoin Active Addresses metric showed a 5% increase over the past week, reaching 1.2 million, suggesting growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). These on-chain metrics, combined with the technical indicators, support the notion that the cryptocurrency market is reacting to broader global market trends, with a particular focus on non-US assets.
In terms of AI-related developments, recent advancements in AI technology have had a notable impact on AI-focused cryptocurrencies. On March 22, 2025, the release of a new AI model by a leading tech company led to a 7% increase in the price of SingularityNET (AGIX) within 24 hours, reaching $0.85 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This surge was accompanied by a 20% increase in trading volume for AGIX, reaching $250 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI news and cryptocurrency performance is evident, as major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced slight gains of 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, on the same day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This suggests that positive AI developments can drive increased interest and investment in AI-related tokens, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover markets. Furthermore, the sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 15% increase in positive mentions of AI and cryptocurrency on March 22, 2025, indicating a growing enthusiasm for AI-driven trading strategies (Sentiment Analysis, 2025). Traders should monitor these AI developments closely, as they can significantly influence market sentiment and trading volumes in the cryptocurrency space.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.