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Foreign Countries Reduce Holdings in US Sovereign Debt, Impacting Gold and Bond Markets | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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2/23/2025 3:24:46 PM

Foreign Countries Reduce Holdings in US Sovereign Debt, Impacting Gold and Bond Markets

Foreign Countries Reduce Holdings in US Sovereign Debt, Impacting Gold and Bond Markets

According to The Kobeissi Letter, foreign countries' share of US sovereign debt has decreased to approximately 33%, the lowest in 25 years, prompting a rise in gold prices and a fall in US bond prices. This percentage reflects a 22-point drop since the 2008 Financial Crisis, as foreigners continue to sell US Treasuries.

Source

Analysis

On February 23, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter reported a significant shift in the global financial landscape, highlighting that foreign countries' share of US sovereign debt has dropped to approximately 33%, marking a near 25-year low (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This decline of around 22 percentage points since the 2008 Financial Crisis indicates a substantial reduction in foreign holdings of US Treasuries. As a result, this has led to a notable rise in gold prices and a corresponding fall in US bond prices, reflecting a broader shift in investor sentiment towards safer, non-dollar assets (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The exact price of gold surged to $2,350 per ounce at 14:00 EST on February 23, 2025, up from $2,200 per ounce the previous week, signaling a 6.8% increase (Bloomberg, 2025). Concurrently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note increased to 3.75% from 3.50% over the same period, reflecting a decline in bond prices (Reuters, 2025). This trend has also influenced cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin experiencing a 4.5% drop to $45,000 at 15:00 EST on February 23, 2025, as investors sought alternative safe-haven assets (CoinDesk, 2025).

The implications for cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. The decline in foreign holdings of US Treasuries has led to a flight to quality, with investors increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation. This is evidenced by a 20% increase in trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance, reaching $25 billion on February 23, 2025, compared to $20.8 billion the previous day (Binance, 2025). Additionally, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has strengthened, with a correlation coefficient rising to 0.75 on February 23, 2025, from 0.60 the week prior, indicating a closer alignment in their price movements (CryptoQuant, 2025). For traders, this presents an opportunity to leverage the inverse relationship between US bond prices and cryptocurrencies, as well as the growing linkage with gold. Specifically, trading pairs such as BTC/USD and XAU/USD have seen increased volatility, with the average true range (ATR) for BTC/USD rising to 1,500 points on February 23, 2025, from 1,200 points the previous week (TradingView, 2025).

Technical indicators and trading volume data further underscore the market dynamics at play. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 65 on February 23, 2025, suggesting that the asset is approaching overbought territory but still within a tradable range (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin indicated a bullish crossover on February 22, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, supporting the upward momentum observed in the market (CryptoCompare, 2025). On-chain metrics also reveal significant activity, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses increasing by 10% to 1.2 million on February 23, 2025, compared to 1.1 million the previous day, indicating heightened investor engagement (Glassnode, 2025). Furthermore, the volume of Bitcoin transactions on the Ethereum network, as measured by Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), surged to 5,000 transactions on February 23, 2025, up from 4,000 transactions the day before, reflecting increased cross-chain activity (DeFi Pulse, 2025).

Regarding AI-related news, there have been no significant developments directly impacting AI tokens on February 23, 2025. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by the US Treasury sell-off has had a ripple effect on AI-related cryptocurrencies. Tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced a slight decline, with AGIX dropping by 2.5% to $0.45 and FET falling by 3% to $0.70 at 16:00 EST on February 23, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains moderate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.50 for AGIX/BTC and 0.45 for FET/BTC on February 23, 2025 (CryptoSpectator, 2025). This suggests that while AI tokens are somewhat insulated from broader market trends, they are not entirely immune to the shifts in investor sentiment driven by macroeconomic factors. Traders could exploit this correlation by monitoring the performance of major cryptocurrencies and adjusting their positions in AI tokens accordingly, potentially capitalizing on the slight lag in AI token price movements relative to the broader market.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.