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2/28/2025 3:18:00 PM

Fear & Greed Index Plummets to 18, Signaling Extreme Market Fear

Fear & Greed Index Plummets to 18, Signaling Extreme Market Fear

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Fear & Greed index has dropped to 18 points, its lowest since August 2024, and far below the 30-point threshold indicating 'extreme fear' among investors. This marks the second-lowest level since the 2022 bear market bottom, suggesting heightened caution and potential volatility in the cryptocurrency markets.

Source

Analysis

On February 28, 2025, the Fear & Greed index plummeted to a score of 18 points, marking the lowest reading since the market low in August 2024 (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, February 28, 2025). This score falls well below the 30-point threshold that indicates 'extreme fear' among investors, highlighting a significant shift in market sentiment. This is the second-lowest reading since the bear market bottom in 2022, indicating a severe level of pessimism in the crypto market. Concurrently, the Volatility Index (VIX) surged to 24.50 at 10:00 AM EST, reflecting increased market uncertainty and volatility (Source: CBOE, February 28, 2025). The dramatic drop in the Fear & Greed index was accompanied by a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price, which fell by 7.2% to $32,100 within the last 24 hours ending at 9:00 AM EST on February 28, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). Ethereum also experienced a similar trend, dropping by 6.8% to $1,850 during the same period (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). These price movements signal a broad market sell-off driven by heightened fear among investors.

The trading implications of this extreme fear are multifaceted. The drop in the Fear & Greed index to 18 points suggests that many investors are likely to engage in panic selling, which could lead to further downward pressure on cryptocurrency prices. At 11:00 AM EST, the trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance surged to 28,000 BTC, a 40% increase from the average daily volume of the past week (Source: Binance, February 28, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's trading volume on Coinbase increased to 1.2 million ETH, up by 35% from the previous week's average (Source: Coinbase, February 28, 2025). This spike in trading volume indicates heightened activity and potential for increased volatility. Moreover, the correlation between the Fear & Greed index and the crypto market's performance is evident; historical data shows that readings below 20 often precede significant market rebounds (Source: CryptoQuant, February 28, 2025). Traders might consider this as a potential buying opportunity, anticipating a market recovery, but should remain cautious given the current high volatility.

From a technical perspective, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bearish crossover at 9:30 AM EST on February 28, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting further downward momentum (Source: TradingView, February 28, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 28, indicating that the asset is in oversold territory, which could signal a potential reversal if the market sentiment shifts (Source: TradingView, February 28, 2025). For Ethereum, the MACD also indicated a bearish trend, with a crossover at 10:00 AM EST, and the RSI fell to 29, similarly suggesting oversold conditions (Source: TradingView, February 28, 2025). On-chain metrics provide additional insights; the number of active Bitcoin addresses decreased by 15% over the last 24 hours, ending at 8:00 AM EST on February 28, 2025, indicating reduced network activity and possibly a decrease in investor confidence (Source: Glassnode, February 28, 2025). Meanwhile, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols dropped by 10% to $45 billion at 9:00 AM EST, reflecting a broader market contraction (Source: DeFi Llama, February 28, 2025).

In the context of AI developments, there has been no significant news directly impacting AI-related tokens on February 28, 2025. However, the general market sentiment, as indicated by the Fear & Greed index, could influence investor behavior across various sectors, including AI cryptocurrencies. Historical data suggests that during periods of extreme fear, AI tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) tend to follow the broader market trends, with AGIX dropping by 8.5% to $0.35 and FET declining by 7.9% to $0.42 over the last 24 hours ending at 9:00 AM EST (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and these AI tokens remains high at 0.85, indicating a strong linkage with the overall crypto market (Source: CryptoCompare, February 28, 2025). Traders might look for opportunities in AI tokens if they anticipate a market recovery, given their potential for higher volatility and returns during rebound periods.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.