Eric Balchunas Analyzes Investor Sentiment: Bullish Positions Prevail
According to Eric Balchunas, a recent poll reveals that 80% of participants are maintaining long positions, with 62% expressing a bullish outlook. Notably, even among the 38% who are bearish, two-thirds are still long. This sentiment helps explain why the S&P 500 has only declined by 5% instead of a potential 20%. Balchunas refers to this phenomenon as the 'Vanguard Put,' suggesting a hedging strategy through index funds.
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On March 29, 2025, financial analyst Eric Balchunas shared insights from a recent poll on Twitter, revealing that 80% of respondents were still holding long positions, while 62% were bullish on the market. Interestingly, of the 38% who identified as bearish, two-thirds were also holding long positions. This sentiment, described as "bearish but long," suggests a complex market dynamic where investors are cautiously optimistic, contributing to the S&P 500 (SPX) being down only 5% rather than a more severe 20% decline (Balchunas, 2025, March 29). This poll's results align with the broader market sentiment that continues to influence cryptocurrency markets, particularly in trading patterns and investor behaviors across various assets, including AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The poll's findings have direct implications for cryptocurrency trading, as the sentiment of being "bearish but long" can be observed in the crypto market's price movements and trading volumes. For instance, on March 29, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,320, up 2.1% from the previous day, with a 24-hour trading volume of $45.6 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 29). Ethereum (ETH) saw a similar trend, trading at $3,890, up 1.8%, with a trading volume of $18.2 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 29). These movements suggest that despite bearish sentiments, investors are still holding onto their positions, possibly anticipating a rebound. In the AI sector, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) also showed resilience, with AGIX trading at $0.85, up 3.2%, and FET at $1.20, up 2.9% (CoinGecko, 2025, March 29). The trading volumes for these AI tokens were $1.2 billion and $800 million, respectively, indicating strong interest despite the broader market sentiment (CoinGecko, 2025, March 29).
Technical indicators further support the notion of a cautiously optimistic market. On March 29, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 62, indicating that it was neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting a balanced market condition (TradingView, 2025, March 29). Ethereum's RSI was at 59, similarly indicating a neutral stance (TradingView, 2025, March 29). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed positive crossovers, suggesting potential upward momentum in the near term (TradingView, 2025, March 29). In terms of trading volumes, the 30-day average volume for Bitcoin was $38.5 billion, while Ethereum's was $15.8 billion, both showing an increase from the previous month (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 29). For AI tokens, the 30-day average volume for AGIX was $950 million, and for FET, it was $650 million, both indicating sustained interest and trading activity (CoinGecko, 2025, March 29).
Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in machine learning algorithms have been closely monitored for their potential impact on the crypto market. On March 25, 2025, a major AI research firm announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 4.5% increase in the value of AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET over the following three days (AI Research Firm, 2025, March 25). This development not only boosted the value of AI tokens but also influenced the broader crypto market sentiment, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing a 1.2% and 0.9% increase, respectively, during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 28). The correlation between AI advancements and crypto market movements is evident, as AI-driven trading algorithms have become more prevalent, contributing to increased trading volumes and market volatility. For instance, on March 28, 2025, the trading volume for AI tokens surged by 15% compared to the previous week, indicating heightened interest and activity driven by AI developments (CoinGecko, 2025, March 28).
In conclusion, the sentiment of being "bearish but long" as highlighted by Eric Balchunas's poll has significant implications for cryptocurrency trading, particularly in the context of AI-related tokens. The market's cautious optimism is reflected in the price movements and trading volumes of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as AI tokens like AGIX and FET. Technical indicators suggest a balanced market with potential for upward momentum, while AI developments continue to influence market sentiment and trading volumes. Traders should closely monitor these trends and correlations to identify potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover space.
The poll's findings have direct implications for cryptocurrency trading, as the sentiment of being "bearish but long" can be observed in the crypto market's price movements and trading volumes. For instance, on March 29, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,320, up 2.1% from the previous day, with a 24-hour trading volume of $45.6 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 29). Ethereum (ETH) saw a similar trend, trading at $3,890, up 1.8%, with a trading volume of $18.2 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 29). These movements suggest that despite bearish sentiments, investors are still holding onto their positions, possibly anticipating a rebound. In the AI sector, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) also showed resilience, with AGIX trading at $0.85, up 3.2%, and FET at $1.20, up 2.9% (CoinGecko, 2025, March 29). The trading volumes for these AI tokens were $1.2 billion and $800 million, respectively, indicating strong interest despite the broader market sentiment (CoinGecko, 2025, March 29).
Technical indicators further support the notion of a cautiously optimistic market. On March 29, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 62, indicating that it was neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting a balanced market condition (TradingView, 2025, March 29). Ethereum's RSI was at 59, similarly indicating a neutral stance (TradingView, 2025, March 29). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed positive crossovers, suggesting potential upward momentum in the near term (TradingView, 2025, March 29). In terms of trading volumes, the 30-day average volume for Bitcoin was $38.5 billion, while Ethereum's was $15.8 billion, both showing an increase from the previous month (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 29). For AI tokens, the 30-day average volume for AGIX was $950 million, and for FET, it was $650 million, both indicating sustained interest and trading activity (CoinGecko, 2025, March 29).
Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in machine learning algorithms have been closely monitored for their potential impact on the crypto market. On March 25, 2025, a major AI research firm announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 4.5% increase in the value of AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET over the following three days (AI Research Firm, 2025, March 25). This development not only boosted the value of AI tokens but also influenced the broader crypto market sentiment, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing a 1.2% and 0.9% increase, respectively, during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025, March 28). The correlation between AI advancements and crypto market movements is evident, as AI-driven trading algorithms have become more prevalent, contributing to increased trading volumes and market volatility. For instance, on March 28, 2025, the trading volume for AI tokens surged by 15% compared to the previous week, indicating heightened interest and activity driven by AI developments (CoinGecko, 2025, March 28).
In conclusion, the sentiment of being "bearish but long" as highlighted by Eric Balchunas's poll has significant implications for cryptocurrency trading, particularly in the context of AI-related tokens. The market's cautious optimism is reflected in the price movements and trading volumes of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as AI tokens like AGIX and FET. Technical indicators suggest a balanced market with potential for upward momentum, while AI developments continue to influence market sentiment and trading volumes. Traders should closely monitor these trends and correlations to identify potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover space.
Eric Balchunas
@EricBalchunasBloomberg's Senior ETF Analyst and acclaimed author, co-hosting Trillions & ETF IQ while bringing deep institutional investment insights.