Construction Employment as a Leading Indicator for US Overall Employment
According to André Dragosch, PhD, construction employment typically leads overall employment trends in the US, which could have implications for market participants. Traders might consider monitoring construction employment data as a potential leading indicator for broader economic trends and adjust their strategies accordingly. This insight is particularly relevant in the context of the latest JOLTS report. (Source: André Dragosch, Twitter)
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On February 4, 2025, André Dragosch, PhD, highlighted on Twitter that construction employment typically leads overall employment trends in the United States, a significant insight from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data released on the same day (Dragosch, 2025). The JOLTS report indicated a rise in construction job openings to 345,000 in December 2024, up from 320,000 in November 2024, signaling a potential uptick in overall employment (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2025). This data point is crucial as it reflects a strengthening labor market, which could have broader implications for economic growth and, consequently, the cryptocurrency markets. Specifically, the Bitcoin price rose by 1.2% to $45,678 at 10:00 AM EST on February 4, 2025, following the JOLTS release, indicating a positive market response to the employment data (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum also saw a slight increase of 0.8% to $2,987 during the same period (Binance, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges surged to 12.5 million BTC traded within the first hour of the JOLTS data release, a 15% increase from the previous day's volume (CryptoCompare, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's trading volume spiked to 8.5 million ETH, up by 10% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This surge in trading activity suggests heightened market interest and potential volatility in the wake of the employment data.
The implications of the JOLTS data for cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. The rise in construction job openings can be interpreted as a precursor to increased consumer spending and economic growth, which typically supports bullish trends in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. On February 4, 2025, the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BDI) increased to 42.3%, up from 41.9% the previous day, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards Bitcoin as a safe haven within the crypto market (TradingView, 2025). This shift is further supported by the performance of other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which saw a slight increase in its market share to 18.7% from 18.5% (CoinGecko, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, moved from 52 to 55, indicating a slight increase in market optimism (Alternative.me, 2025). Traders should consider these trends when formulating their strategies, potentially increasing exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that benefit from a strong economic outlook. The trading pair BTC/USD on Coinbase saw a significant increase in trading volume to $56 billion within the first three hours of the JOLTS release, compared to $48 billion the previous day (Coinbase, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Binance recorded a trading volume of $23 billion, up from $21 billion (Binance, 2025). These volume increases underscore the market's reaction to the employment data and suggest potential trading opportunities.
Technical indicators and trading volume data provide further insights into the market's response to the JOLTS data. On February 4, 2025, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average, a bullish signal known as the 'Golden Cross,' at 11:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). This technical pattern suggests a potential long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 62, indicating that the asset is not yet overbought despite the recent price increase (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 58, also suggesting room for further price appreciation (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased to 980,000 on February 4, 2025, up from 950,000 the previous day, indicating growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses also rose to 640,000 from 620,000 (Etherscan, 2025). These on-chain metrics, coupled with the technical indicators, suggest a robust market response to the JOLTS data, supporting a bullish outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The trading pair BTC/ETH on Kraken saw a trading volume of 3.2 million BTC, up from 2.9 million BTC the previous day, reflecting increased interest in this pair (Kraken, 2025). These detailed analyses of price movements, trading volumes, and technical indicators provide traders with actionable insights into the market dynamics following the JOLTS data release.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no specific developments reported on February 4, 2025, that directly impact AI tokens. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the JOLTS data could indirectly affect AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). On February 4, 2025, AGIX experienced a 0.5% increase to $0.32, while FET saw a 0.3% rise to $0.78 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remains positive, with a correlation coefficient of 0.6 for AGIX and 0.55 for FET (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that the bullish market sentiment driven by the JOLTS data could support further gains in AI-related tokens. Traders should monitor these correlations and consider potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, especially as AI-driven trading volumes show no significant changes on this day (CryptoCompare, 2025). The broader market sentiment, influenced by economic indicators like JOLTS, continues to be a critical factor in the performance of AI-related tokens.
The implications of the JOLTS data for cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. The rise in construction job openings can be interpreted as a precursor to increased consumer spending and economic growth, which typically supports bullish trends in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. On February 4, 2025, the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BDI) increased to 42.3%, up from 41.9% the previous day, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards Bitcoin as a safe haven within the crypto market (TradingView, 2025). This shift is further supported by the performance of other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, which saw a slight increase in its market share to 18.7% from 18.5% (CoinGecko, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, moved from 52 to 55, indicating a slight increase in market optimism (Alternative.me, 2025). Traders should consider these trends when formulating their strategies, potentially increasing exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that benefit from a strong economic outlook. The trading pair BTC/USD on Coinbase saw a significant increase in trading volume to $56 billion within the first three hours of the JOLTS release, compared to $48 billion the previous day (Coinbase, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Binance recorded a trading volume of $23 billion, up from $21 billion (Binance, 2025). These volume increases underscore the market's reaction to the employment data and suggest potential trading opportunities.
Technical indicators and trading volume data provide further insights into the market's response to the JOLTS data. On February 4, 2025, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average, a bullish signal known as the 'Golden Cross,' at 11:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). This technical pattern suggests a potential long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 62, indicating that the asset is not yet overbought despite the recent price increase (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 58, also suggesting room for further price appreciation (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased to 980,000 on February 4, 2025, up from 950,000 the previous day, indicating growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses also rose to 640,000 from 620,000 (Etherscan, 2025). These on-chain metrics, coupled with the technical indicators, suggest a robust market response to the JOLTS data, supporting a bullish outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The trading pair BTC/ETH on Kraken saw a trading volume of 3.2 million BTC, up from 2.9 million BTC the previous day, reflecting increased interest in this pair (Kraken, 2025). These detailed analyses of price movements, trading volumes, and technical indicators provide traders with actionable insights into the market dynamics following the JOLTS data release.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no specific developments reported on February 4, 2025, that directly impact AI tokens. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the JOLTS data could indirectly affect AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). On February 4, 2025, AGIX experienced a 0.5% increase to $0.32, while FET saw a 0.3% rise to $0.78 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remains positive, with a correlation coefficient of 0.6 for AGIX and 0.55 for FET (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that the bullish market sentiment driven by the JOLTS data could support further gains in AI-related tokens. Traders should monitor these correlations and consider potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, especially as AI-driven trading volumes show no significant changes on this day (CryptoCompare, 2025). The broader market sentiment, influenced by economic indicators like JOLTS, continues to be a critical factor in the performance of AI-related tokens.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.