According to Edward Dowd, the equity market is failing to reach new highs this month, which could be concerning. While the equity market is not currently pricing in a recession, the bond market is signaling potential economic warnings. Traders should be cautious as these indicators may influence equity and bond market movements. Source: Edward Dowd via Twitter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Bond Market Volatility Index, $MOVE, experienced a significant drop of 40% from November 5th to December 11th, followed by a 25% increase over the last 7 trading days. This volatility is crucial for traders to monitor as it reflects uncertainty and potential shifts in bond pricing dynamics.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US government's balance sheet reveals a significant $39.8 trillion gap between its liabilities of $45.5 trillion and assets of $5.7 trillion. This presents a critical situation for investors, as the enormous liabilities could impact the bond market and interest rates, potentially affecting cryptocurrency market movements as investors seek alternative assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, foreign countries' share of US sovereign debt is currently around 33%, marking the lowest point in 25 years. This significant reduction, down by approximately 22 percentage points since the 2008 Financial Crisis, indicates that foreigners are actively selling US Treasuries. This trend is contributing to the rise in gold prices and the decline in US bond prices, highlighting a shift in investment preferences that traders should monitor closely.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, as of February 20th, 2025, the US government has accumulated approximately $36.2 trillion in total debt. This debt is divided into two main categories: $28.9 trillion in debt held by the public and $7.3 trillion in intragovernmental debt. These figures are critical for traders as they reflect the government's borrowing needs and potential future fiscal policies, which could influence interest rates and economic growth. Monitoring these debt levels can provide insights into the potential impact on the bond market and broader financial markets.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the US Treasury is experiencing difficulties in marketing long-term debt due to a lack of investor willingness to lend money to the US government over extended periods. This indicates potential structural changes in the investment landscape, which could impact long-term interest rates and bond market strategies. Such shifts are crucial for traders to monitor as they may influence market liquidity and pricing dynamics.

According to @KobeissiLetter, in 2025, $9.2 trillion of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced, accounting for 25.4% of the total $36.2 trillion US government debt. This significant maturity is a key reason for rising interest rates, as investors anticipate increased borrowing costs and potential shifts in monetary policy. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for traders assessing the US bond market and interest rate movements.

According to @KobeissiLetter, in 2025, $9.2 trillion of US debt is set to mature or require refinancing, representing 25.4% of the total $36.2 trillion US government debt. This substantial proportion is a key factor in the current rise of interest rates, highlighting significant implications for bond traders and investors in the US financial markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the influx of bonds into the market has led to falling bond prices and rising yields, an effect attributed to basic supply and demand dynamics. This trend has resulted in real yields moving higher consistently since 2022, indicating that inflation is not the primary factor driving the recent increase in rates.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US deficit reached $1.8 trillion in 2024, accounting for 6.4% of GDP. This has led to over $1 trillion per year on interest expenses alone. The need to finance this debt is primarily addressed through the sale of US government bonds, making it crucial for traders to monitor bond market dynamics as interest rates and bond demand will influence trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US deficit has reached $1.8 trillion in 2024, equating to 6.4% of GDP. This substantial deficit results in over $1 trillion per year in interest expenses, creating a significant demand for US government bonds. Traders should note the implications for bond yields and market liquidity as this debt requires continued purchasing.