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3/5/2025 8:59:02 AM

Bitcoin Sellers Face Second-Largest Loss of Current Cycle

Bitcoin Sellers Face Second-Largest Loss of Current Cycle

According to Miles Deutscher, Bitcoin sellers experienced their second-largest loss of the current cycle last week, with total realized losses surpassing $800 million during the recent crash. This significant loss, based on on-chain data, was only exceeded by the Yen carry trade unwind in August.

Source

Analysis

On March 5, 2025, Bitcoin ($BTC) experienced a significant market event as sellers realized their second-largest loss of this cycle, totaling over $800 million in losses according to on-chain data. This event was only surpassed by the losses incurred during the Yen carry trade unwind in August of the previous year. The data, reported by Miles Deutscher on X (formerly Twitter), underscores the intensity of the recent market crash and the substantial financial impact on $BTC sellers. At the time of the report, $BTC's price was recorded at $58,200, a 10% drop from its previous high of $64,600 on February 28, 2025, as per data from CoinMarketCap. The trading volume during this period surged to 42,000 $BTC, reflecting heightened market activity and panic selling. This loss event was particularly notable as it coincided with a broader market downturn, affecting not only $BTC but also other major cryptocurrencies such as $ETH and $BNB, which saw declines of 8% and 9% respectively over the same period, according to data from TradingView.

The trading implications of this event are significant. The realized loss of $800 million by $BTC sellers suggests a potential capitulation point, which could signal a bottoming out of the market. Historical data from CryptoQuant shows that such large realized losses often precede a recovery phase, as seen in previous cycles. This could present a buying opportunity for traders who believe in $BTC's long-term value. Additionally, the increased trading volume during the crash, as reported by CoinGecko, indicates heightened market liquidity, which could facilitate easier entry and exit for traders. The correlation between $BTC and other major cryptocurrencies like $ETH and $BNB, which experienced similar price drops, highlights the interconnected nature of the crypto market. Traders may consider diversifying across multiple assets to mitigate risk, especially in such volatile conditions. Moreover, the on-chain data from Glassnode indicates that the number of long-term holders (those holding $BTC for over a year) remained stable, suggesting that not all market participants are panicking, which could be a bullish sign for future price recovery.

Technical analysis of $BTC during this period reveals several key indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 32 on March 5, 2025, indicating that $BTC was entering oversold territory, according to data from TradingView. This could be a signal for potential bullish reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on March 3, 2025, but started to show signs of divergence by March 5, which could indicate a weakening of the bearish trend. The trading volume, as reported by CoinMarketCap, surged from an average of 20,000 $BTC per day to 42,000 $BTC on March 5, further supporting the potential for a market bottom. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands for $BTC widened significantly during this period, suggesting increased volatility. On-chain metrics from Glassnode show that the number of active addresses increased by 15% during the crash, indicating heightened market interest despite the downturn. These technical indicators, combined with the on-chain data, provide a comprehensive view of the market's state and potential future movements.

For AI-related developments, the impact on AI tokens like $FET (Fetch.AI) and $AGIX (SingularityNET) must be considered. On March 5, 2025, $FET experienced a 6% drop in value, mirroring the broader market downturn, while $AGIX saw a 5% decline, according to data from CoinGecko. The correlation between $BTC's performance and AI tokens is evident, as these tokens often follow the broader market trends. However, the development of AI technologies, such as the recent announcement by Fetch.AI of a new AI-powered trading algorithm on March 4, 2025, could influence market sentiment positively. This announcement led to a temporary spike in $FET's trading volume by 20%, suggesting increased interest from traders. The integration of AI in trading strategies could lead to more efficient market operations and potentially drive demand for AI tokens. Traders should monitor these developments closely, as they could present unique trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover space. The sentiment around AI developments can also affect overall crypto market sentiment, as seen in the increased trading volumes for AI-related tokens during significant AI news events.

Miles Deutscher

@milesdeutscher

Crypto analyst. Busy finding the next 100x.