Bitcoin's Bullish Correction and Potential Drop to $72K-$74K

According to Cas Abbé, Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently experiencing a bullish correction, similar to the Q2 2024 correction where it dropped 30% from its peak. The previous correction was influenced by the yen's carry trade, whereas the current situation is affected by tariff wars. Abbé anticipates that Bitcoin may see another downward movement towards the $72K-$74K range before potentially rebounding.
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On March 19, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable correction, echoing the significant drop observed in Q2 2024 when BTC fell by 30% from its peak. According to data from CoinMarketCap, on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, BTC was trading at $80,200, down 12% from its recent high of $91,000 recorded on March 10, 2025, at 14:00 PM UTC (Source: CoinMarketCap). This correction, as highlighted by market analyst Cas Abbé on Twitter, is attributed to ongoing tariff wars, a situation different from the yen's carry trade impact in Q2 2024 (Source: Twitter @cas_abbe). The analyst also predicts a potential further decline to the $72,000-$74,000 range before a possible rebound (Source: Twitter @cas_abbe). This correction has been accompanied by increased trading volume, with BTC/USD trading volume spiking to 34.5 billion USD on March 19, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC, up from an average of 25 billion USD over the previous week (Source: CoinMarketCap). The market has also seen a shift in sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 72 (Greed) on March 10, 2025, to 55 (Neutral) on March 19, 2025 (Source: Alternative.me). This indicates a more cautious approach among investors amidst the current correction phase.
The trading implications of this correction are multifaceted. For BTC/USD, the immediate trading strategy would be to monitor the support levels closely. According to TradingView data, the first significant support is at $78,000, tested on March 19, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, with the next major support at $74,000, which has not been breached yet (Source: TradingView). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 45 on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, indicating a neutral momentum, which suggests that the market might be preparing for a consolidation phase rather than a further sharp decline (Source: TradingView). In terms of trading pairs, BTC/ETH saw a relative stability with the pair trading at 12.5 ETH on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, down only 2% from its recent peak of 12.75 ETH on March 10, 2025, at 14:00 PM UTC (Source: CoinGecko). This indicates that while BTC is undergoing a correction, the relative value against ETH has remained more stable, suggesting a possible shift in investor preference towards Ethereum. The on-chain metrics also provide insights into the current market dynamics. The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network increased by 10% from 900,000 on March 10, 2025, to 990,000 on March 19, 2025, suggesting increased activity and potential accumulation at lower prices (Source: Glassnode).
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC/USD pair on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, showed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, a potential indicator of further downside (Source: TradingView). The trading volume for BTC/USD on the same day at 12:00 PM UTC was significantly higher than the 20-day moving average, indicating strong market participation during the correction (Source: CoinMarketCap). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD was showing a bearish crossover on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, further supporting the bearish sentiment in the short term (Source: TradingView). The 50-day moving average for BTC/USD was at $82,000 on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, acting as a resistance level that the price failed to surpass, adding to the bearish signals (Source: TradingView). In terms of on-chain metrics, the Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator showed a 'miner capitulation' signal on March 19, 2025, at 09:00 AM UTC, suggesting that miners might be selling off their holdings, potentially adding to the downward pressure on the price (Source: Glassnode). The correlation between BTC and other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) remained strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and 0.78, respectively, on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, indicating that the correction in BTC could have a ripple effect across the broader crypto market (Source: CoinMetrics).
The trading implications of this correction are multifaceted. For BTC/USD, the immediate trading strategy would be to monitor the support levels closely. According to TradingView data, the first significant support is at $78,000, tested on March 19, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, with the next major support at $74,000, which has not been breached yet (Source: TradingView). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 45 on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, indicating a neutral momentum, which suggests that the market might be preparing for a consolidation phase rather than a further sharp decline (Source: TradingView). In terms of trading pairs, BTC/ETH saw a relative stability with the pair trading at 12.5 ETH on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, down only 2% from its recent peak of 12.75 ETH on March 10, 2025, at 14:00 PM UTC (Source: CoinGecko). This indicates that while BTC is undergoing a correction, the relative value against ETH has remained more stable, suggesting a possible shift in investor preference towards Ethereum. The on-chain metrics also provide insights into the current market dynamics. The number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network increased by 10% from 900,000 on March 10, 2025, to 990,000 on March 19, 2025, suggesting increased activity and potential accumulation at lower prices (Source: Glassnode).
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC/USD pair on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, showed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, a potential indicator of further downside (Source: TradingView). The trading volume for BTC/USD on the same day at 12:00 PM UTC was significantly higher than the 20-day moving average, indicating strong market participation during the correction (Source: CoinMarketCap). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC/USD was showing a bearish crossover on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, further supporting the bearish sentiment in the short term (Source: TradingView). The 50-day moving average for BTC/USD was at $82,000 on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, acting as a resistance level that the price failed to surpass, adding to the bearish signals (Source: TradingView). In terms of on-chain metrics, the Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator showed a 'miner capitulation' signal on March 19, 2025, at 09:00 AM UTC, suggesting that miners might be selling off their holdings, potentially adding to the downward pressure on the price (Source: Glassnode). The correlation between BTC and other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) remained strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and 0.78, respectively, on March 19, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, indicating that the correction in BTC could have a ripple effect across the broader crypto market (Source: CoinMetrics).
Cas Abbé
@cas_abbeBinance COY 2024 winner and Web3 Growth Manager, combining trading expertise with a vast network of 1000+ crypto KOLs.