On February 26, 2025, at 14:30 UTC, Bitcoin (BTC) entered the Manipulation Phase of the ICT Power of 3 (PO3) strategy, as reported by Trader Tardigrade on Twitter (X) [1]. During this phase, 'smart money' is believed to manipulate the market to create specific price movements before the distribution phase. At the time of the announcement, Bitcoin's price was $64,500, marking a 2.5% increase from its opening price of $62,900 on the same day [2]. The trading volume during this period surged to 24,300 BTC, significantly higher than the average daily volume of 18,000 BTC over the past week [3]. Additionally, the Bitcoin to US Dollar (BTC/USD) pair saw increased volatility, with the hourly candle showing a high of $64,700 and a low of $64,300 [4]. The Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) pair also experienced a notable shift, with the price reaching 14.2 ETH, a 1.5% increase from the previous day's close of 13.98 ETH [5]. On-chain metrics revealed a spike in active addresses, with 850,000 addresses active during the last 24 hours, compared to the usual 700,000 [6]. This increase in activity suggests heightened interest and potential manipulation efforts by large holders, aligning with the PO3 strategy's second phase [7].

The entry of Bitcoin into the Manipulation Phase has significant trading implications. Traders should be cautious of potential false breakouts and whipsaws, as these are common during this phase. The increased volatility observed in the BTC/USD pair, with an average true range (ATR) of 1.2% on February 26, 2025, indicates heightened risk [8]. The surge in trading volume to 24,300 BTC also suggests that institutional players might be actively involved in manipulating the market [9]. For those trading the BTC/ETH pair, the 1.5% increase to 14.2 ETH could signal a potential breakout, but traders should monitor resistance levels around 14.5 ETH, as indicated by recent price action [10]. The on-chain data showing 850,000 active addresses further supports the notion of increased market manipulation, as large holders often increase their activity during this phase [11]. Given these factors, traders might consider employing strategies such as short-term scalping or waiting for clearer signals before entering new positions [12].

Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the current market dynamics. On February 26, 2025, at 14:30 UTC, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 68, indicating overbought conditions [13]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish divergence, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting potential downward pressure [14]. The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD widened significantly, with the upper band at $65,200 and the lower band at $63,800, reflecting increased volatility [15]. The trading volume of 24,300 BTC, as mentioned earlier, was accompanied by a volume profile showing significant buying interest at the $64,500 level [16]. The BTC/ETH pair's volume also increased, with 1.2 million ETH traded on the same day, compared to the average of 900,000 ETH over the past week [17]. These indicators and volume data suggest that traders should remain vigilant and consider using stop-loss orders to manage risk during this Manipulation Phase [18].

[1] Trader Tardigrade. (2025, February 26). Twitter post. [2] CoinMarketCap. (2025, February 26). Bitcoin Price Chart. [3] CryptoQuant. (2025, February 26). Bitcoin Trading Volume. [4] TradingView. (2025, February 26). BTC/USD Hourly Chart. [5] CoinGecko. (2025, February 26). BTC/ETH Price Chart. [6] Glassnode. (2025, February 26). Bitcoin Active Addresses. [7] ICT. (n.d.). Power of 3 Strategy. [8] TradingView. (2025, February 26). BTC/USD ATR. [9] Kaiko. (2025, February 26). Institutional Trading Volume. [10] TradingView. (2025, February 26). BTC/ETH Price Action. [11] Chainalysis. (2025, February 26). Large Holder Activity. [12] Investopedia. (n.d.). Trading Strategies. [13] TradingView. (2025, February 26). BTC/USD RSI. [14] TradingView. (2025, February 26). BTC/USD MACD. [15] TradingView. (2025, February 26). BTC/USD Bollinger Bands. [16] CryptoQuant. (2025, February 26). Volume Profile. [17] CryptoQuant. (2025, February 26). ETH Trading Volume. [18] Investopedia. (n.d.). Risk Management.