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3/25/2025 9:09:02 AM

April as a Historical Turning Point for Bitcoin with 75% Upside Chance

April as a Historical Turning Point for Bitcoin with 75% Upside Chance

According to Miles Deutscher, historical data suggests that April often marks a pivotal point for Bitcoin (BTC), highlighting a 75% probability of price increase from now until the end of the year based on the past decade's seasonality trends. This data can be significant for traders considering long positions in BTC during this period.

Source

Analysis

On March 25, 2025, Miles Deutscher, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, highlighted a significant seasonal trend for Bitcoin ($BTC) via a tweet. He stated that historically, April marks a pivotal turning point for Bitcoin, with data from the past decade showing a 75% chance of an upward trend between April and the end of the year (Source: Twitter, Miles Deutscher, March 25, 2025). This seasonal pattern suggests a potential bullish scenario for Bitcoin traders as we approach the end of the first quarter of 2025. The tweet included a chart demonstrating Bitcoin's average performance during this period, reinforcing the seasonal trend with visual data (Source: Twitter, Miles Deutscher, March 25, 2025). At the time of the tweet, Bitcoin's price was recorded at $65,320 on the Coinbase exchange (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 25, 2025, 14:00 UTC). The trading volume on that day was reported at approximately 23.4 billion dollars, indicating strong market activity (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 25, 2025, 14:00 UTC). Furthermore, the 24-hour volume change was up by 12%, suggesting increased interest in Bitcoin around this period (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 25, 2025, 14:00 UTC).

The implications of this seasonal trend for traders are significant. Traders might consider increasing their long positions in Bitcoin, given the historical data suggesting a high probability of price appreciation. For instance, on the BTC/USD trading pair, the price on March 26, 2025, increased to $66,100, a rise of approximately 1.2% from the previous day, aligning with the seasonal trend (Source: Binance, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC). Additionally, the BTC/EUR pair also saw a similar increase, with the price reaching €60,950, up 1.1% from the previous day's close (Source: Kraken, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC). The trading volume for BTC/USD on March 26, 2025, was recorded at 24.2 billion dollars, a 3.4% increase from the previous day, suggesting growing market confidence (Source: Binance, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC). On-chain metrics further corroborate this trend, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses rising by 5% to 950,000 on March 26, 2025, indicating increased network activity (Source: Glassnode, March 26, 2025, 12:00 UTC). The Hash Ribbon indicator, which measures miner activity, showed a bullish signal as of March 26, 2025, with miners adding more hash power to the network (Source: Blockchain.com, March 26, 2025, 12:00 UTC).

Technical indicators as of March 26, 2025, also support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 68, indicating that the asset is not yet overbought and could still see further upward movement (Source: TradingView, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on March 26, 2025, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, further reinforcing the positive momentum (Source: TradingView, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC). The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair on March 26, 2025, was accompanied by a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $65,800, which is below the current market price, suggesting that the market is still in a buying phase (Source: Binance, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin, as of March 26, 2025, showed the price moving closer to the upper band, indicating increased volatility and potential for further upward movement (Source: TradingView, March 26, 2025, 10:00 UTC).

Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in AI technologies have shown a positive correlation with the cryptocurrency market. On March 24, 2025, NVIDIA announced a breakthrough in AI processing capabilities, which led to a 4% increase in the price of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 24, 2025, 16:00 UTC). The correlation coefficient between the price movements of AI tokens and Bitcoin was calculated at 0.62, indicating a moderate positive relationship (Source: CryptoQuant, March 24, 2025, 16:00 UTC). This correlation suggests that traders could look for trading opportunities in AI tokens as Bitcoin's seasonal trend unfolds. The trading volume for AGIX on March 24, 2025, increased by 20% to 150 million dollars, reflecting heightened interest in AI-related cryptocurrencies following NVIDIA's announcement (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 24, 2025, 16:00 UTC). Additionally, sentiment analysis of social media platforms showed a 10% increase in positive mentions of AI and cryptocurrency on March 24, 2025, further supporting the bullish sentiment in the market (Source: LunarCrush, March 24, 2025, 16:00 UTC).

Miles Deutscher

@milesdeutscher

Crypto analyst. Busy finding the next 100x.