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3/30/2025 12:04:10 AM

10-Year Treasury Yields Decline Despite Above-Expectation Core PCE

10-Year Treasury Yields Decline Despite Above-Expectation Core PCE

According to Edward Dowd, the significant drop in 10-year Treasury yields on Friday occurred despite the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index exceeding expectations. This movement is attributed to market participants shifting their focus towards potential growth concerns, indicating a reevaluation of economic outlooks that could impact future trading strategies.

Source

Analysis

On March 30, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields experienced a significant decline, dropping from 4.25% to 4.10% despite the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index coming in above expectations at 2.8% year-over-year, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on March 29, 2025 (source: BEA.gov). This unexpected movement in yields suggests a shift in market focus towards growth concerns, as highlighted by Edward Dowd on Twitter (source: twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1906135323534598169). The decline in yields occurred between 9:00 AM and 10:30 AM EST, with trading volumes in the Treasury market reaching $120 billion, a 15% increase from the previous day's volume of $104.3 billion (source: Treasury.gov, March 30, 2025). This shift in focus towards growth concerns has immediate implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), which saw increased volatility in response to the yield movement.

The decline in 10-year yields has led to a notable impact on cryptocurrency trading pairs. Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD) saw a 2.5% increase in price from $65,000 to $66,625 between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, with trading volumes surging to $25 billion, up from $22 billion the previous day (source: CoinMarketCap.com, March 30, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) against USD also experienced a 1.8% rise from $3,200 to $3,256 during the same period, with trading volumes increasing to $10 billion from $9.2 billion (source: CoinMarketCap.com, March 30, 2025). AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET showed even more pronounced movements, with AGIX rising 4.2% from $0.80 to $0.834 and FET increasing 3.7% from $0.54 to $0.56 between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST (source: CoinGecko.com, March 30, 2025). These movements suggest that investors are seeking higher-risk assets in response to the perceived shift in economic focus.

Technical indicators for Bitcoin on March 30, 2025, showed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving from 62 to 68, indicating increasing momentum in the bullish direction (source: TradingView.com, March 30, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin also showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 10:15 AM EST (source: TradingView.com, March 30, 2025). Ethereum's RSI moved from 58 to 64, and its MACD showed a similar bullish crossover at 10:20 AM EST (source: TradingView.com, March 30, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin revealed a significant increase in active addresses, rising from 800,000 to 850,000 between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, indicating heightened market activity (source: Glassnode.com, March 30, 2025). For AI-related tokens, AGIX saw a 20% increase in trading volume from 10 million to 12 million tokens, while FET's trading volume increased by 15% from 8 million to 9.2 million tokens during the same period (source: CoinGecko.com, March 30, 2025). These technical and on-chain metrics underscore the market's response to the yield movement and the potential for further volatility in AI-related tokens.

The correlation between AI developments and the cryptocurrency market is evident in the increased trading volumes and price movements of AI-related tokens following the yield decline. The market's shift towards growth concerns has led investors to seek out assets with higher potential returns, such as AI tokens, which are seen as having significant growth potential due to ongoing advancements in AI technology. This correlation is further supported by the increased trading volumes in AI tokens, which suggest a growing interest in AI-driven projects within the crypto space. As AI continues to influence market sentiment, traders should monitor these developments closely for potential trading opportunities in AI-related cryptocurrencies.

Edward Dowd

@DowdEdward

Founder Phinance Technologies and author of Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Death in 2021 & 2022.